Tuesday’s loaded MLB slate has all 15 teams in action. If you’re looking to catch some action on TV, you can find the Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Indians on FS1 (6:10 p.m. EST) and the St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers on ESPN+ (10:10 p.m. EST).
In my last writing, I went 2-0 and improved the season-long record a little bit to 11-17 (-$620). I have found a lot more success narrowing down the list to two games, so here are another two free MLB betting picks to keep things rolling.
Table of contents
- Washington Nationals (+125) at Atlanta Braves (-135) – Total: 8.5
- Detroit Tigers (+145) at Milwaukee Brewers (-160) – Total: 7
Washington Nationals (+125) at Atlanta Braves (-135) – Total: 8.5
WSH: Stephen Strasburg – R (1-2, 4.43 ERA/1.33 WHIP | 20.1 IP: 20 Ks, 4 HR)
ATL: Max Fried – L (2-2, 4.63 ERA/1.49 WHIP | 35 IP: 34 Ks, 4 HR)
Each team’s IRT increased by +0.5 while the game total only rose from 8 to 8.5. I’ll gladly take that numerical difference and run with the over on 8.5 runs. Atlanta home games do have the third-highest rate of games over the total (65.4%) in MLB this season. A lot of that has to do with the generous dimensions, but we’ll take every advantage we can get.
In doing the research for this game, I was surprised to learn how well the Braves hit Strasburg in the past. Over 35 starts against Atlanta, he owns an 3.94 ERA. Freddie Freeman has been the main beneficiary, going 20-for-62 with six doubles and four HR against Strasburg.
Fried has pitched well in recent games, but it has come against lesser competition (NYM, PIT). The Nationals, losers of five straight, should be laser-focused tonight in a must-win game. It does help that they’re facing a lefty, owning the sixth-best wOBA (.332) in MLB in that split. Fried has struggled against the Nats in recent meetings, allowing 23 hits and 14 runs over his last 14.1 innings of work.
Betting Pick: Over 8.5 runs (-110)
Detroit Tigers (+145) at Milwaukee Brewers (-160) – Total: 7
DET: Matthew Boyd – L (2-6, 3.43 ERA/1.13 WHIP | 57.2 IP: 47 Ks, 3 HR)
MIL: Eric Lauer – L (1-1, 2.45 ERA/1.09 WHIP | 22 IP: 22 Ks, 5 HR)
There has been quite a bit movement on the total, opening at 8 runs before going down to 7. The Tigers were the main culprit, getting a -0.4 IRT decrease, and that now puts them at an implied total of 3.3- second lowest on the slate. It’s also worth noting that we’re seeing about 63% of all money wagered going toward the under as well. Make sure you do some digging around, because there may be some 7.5s out there.
Lauer, on the other hand, should have a much easier time. The Tigers rank dead last in wOBA (.264), wRC+ (67) and ISO (.087). Of course, they did just complete a three-game sweep over the weekend against the Yankees; and I loved that as one of the biggest Yankee haters on the face of the Earth. However, we did see Detroit come back down to Earth a bit last night. I’d expect the offensive struggles to continue tonight.
Boyd hasn’t been at his best lately, allowing 14 runs (13 ER) over his last 16 innings of work. With everything we know about the total movement, this could be a nice bounce-back spot for the lefty. After all, the Brewers are only averaging 3.5 runs per game over their last seven.
Betting Pick: Under 7 runs (-110)
