Week 16 of the NFL season provides with a nice post-Christmas triple-header treat for us football. The three games on the slate are the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions, San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals, and Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders.
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In this article, I will identify the best value in the player-prop betting market for the Saturday matchups. The odds in this article are from William Hill Sports – Use the promo code TS500 for a 100% first-time sign-up deposit bonus of up to $500.
NFL Player Props
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions
- San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals
- Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions
Saturday, 1:00 pm EST | Watch: NFL Network
Ford Field – Detroit, MI
(TB) Tom Brady Prop Bets Watch:
- Over 317.5 Passing Yards (-115)
- Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (+130)
The Bucs still have a path to improving their playoff position. Winning out in the final two games (@DET, vs. ATL), coupled with an LA Rams loss (remaining games: @SEA, vs. ARZ), would put Tampa Bay in the No. 5 seed and gain matchup with the NFC East winner- likely the Washington Football Team.
| Teams | Spread | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|
| TB | -9.5 (-110) | -430 |
| DET | +9.5 (-110) | +350 |
| Total | 54 Points |
Brady finds himself in a great matchup against the Lions, who rank third worst in pass defense DVOA and sixth worst in passing yards allowed per game (264.1). It’s been clear as day that The GOAT is more comfortable against weaker pass rushes up front; Detroit ranks fifth worst in sack percentage (3.85%) and third worst over the last three games.
The Bucs’ offense has put up a total of 57 points in the two games since their bye week. Look for Brady to get the ball to his plentiful group of skill players and have a successful day in doing so.
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals
Saturday, 4:30 EST | Watch: Amazon Prime
State Farm Stadium – Glendale, AZ
(ARZ) Kyler Murray Prop Bets Watch:
- Over 45.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
- Over 8.5 Rushing Attempts (-120)
- Anytime TD (+100)
All the way back in Week 1, Murray ran for 91 yards (second-most of the season) on 13 attempts and a TD. While his rushing-yard totals haven’t been anything great recently, this is the perfect time to buy low on his prop numbers here. Murray hasn’t topped 50 rushing yards in each of his last five games.
| Teams | Spread | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|
| SF | +5 (-110) | +195 |
| ARZ | -5 (-110) | -230 |
| Total | 49 Points |
From a betting perspective, San Francisco looks like it can keep things close. The spread opened at a curious +4.5 for a team coming in losers of three straight, and in six of the last seven.
If the 49ers really do have the upper hand here, it’s almost exclusively going to put the ball in the hands of Murray. When that happens, literally anything is possible.
Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders
Saturday, 8:15 pm EST | Watch: NFL Network
Allegiant Stadium – Las Vegas, NV
(LV) Josh Jacobs Prop Bets Watch:
- Over 70.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
- Anytime TD (-110), 2+ TDs (+450)
We can certainly make the argument that the Raiders will show up and win this game. After all, they did have some extra time to prepare for a rookie QB and didn’t have to travel anywhere. Meanwhile, the Dolphins played a very tough game against the Patriots and now have to travel across the country on a short week.
| Teams | Spread | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|
| MIA | -3 (-105) | -160 |
| LV | +3 (-115) | +140 |
| Total | 47.5 Points |
The best way to beat Miami is by running the football, and Las Vegas certainly has the personnel to do just that. Last week, Jacobs looked alive for the first time in a while, notching 114 total yards (76 rushing, 38 receiving) and a TD. Look for him to have a nice stretch run and help the Raiders win some ball games at the end of the season.
