Week 16 of the NFL season gets kicked off with a rare Christmas Day matinee matchup between the Minnesota Vikings and New Orleans Saints. This game has tons of importance for the Saints, who now find themselves in danger of losing the No. 2 seed in the NFC. A win on Friday, though, would go a long way in making sure that doesn’t happen.
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New Orleans has been installed as seven-point favorites (-310 moneyline odds to win outright) while Minnesota has +260 odds to outright as the underdog. Additionally, the total has been set at 52 points.
In this article, I will identify the best value in the player-prop betting market in the Saints-Vikings matchup. The odds in this article are from William Hill Sports – Use the promo code TS500 for a 100% first-time sign-up deposit bonus of up to $500.
Vikings at Saints Props
- Alvin Kamara (New Orleans Saints) vs. Minnesota Vikings
- Justin Jefferson (Minnesota Vikings) at New Orleans Saints
- Kirk Cousins (Minnesota Vikings) at New Orleans Saints
| Teams | Spread | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|
| MIN | +7 (-115) | +255 |
| NO | -7 (-105) | -310 |
| Total | 52 Points |
Alvin Kamara (New Orleans Saints) vs. Minnesota Vikings
Friday, 4:30 pm EST | Watch: FOX/NFL Network
Mercedes-Benz Superdome – New Orleans, LA
Prop Bets Watch:
- Over 45.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
- Over 60.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
- Over 5.5 Receptions (-145)
- Over 15.5 Yards: Longest Reception (-125)
- Over 110.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115)
- Anytime TD (-215), 2+ TDs (+380), 3+ TDs (+680)
Now that the Saints NEED to win games for playoff positioning, it’s a good idea to get Kamara going once again. It is truly insane to believe, but he hasn’t even reached 100 total yards in each of the last seven games. Let’s not totally freak out, though, as some of those games had total-yardage accumulations of 98, 97, 94 and 94 over that span. To put things in perspective, Kamara did have at least 130 total yards in six of the teams’ first seven games.
Nevertheless, Kamara just flat out needs the football in hands. Luckily, he does have Drew Brees back at QB and that will certainly help his individual production; although, we’re not entirely sure how it’ll help the team’s overall production.
I am feeling pretty confident in Kamara getting plenty of touches in this matchup, considering the Vikings are not one of the league’s better defenses. In fact, Minnesota just allowed a season-high 162 total yards to a player at the RB position (David Montgomery) last week.
Justin Jefferson (Minnesota Vikings) at New Orleans Saints
Friday, 4:30 pm EST | Watch: FOX/NFL Network
Mercedes-Benz Superdome – New Orleans, LA
Prop Bets Watch:
- Over 4.5 Receptions (-140)–
- Over 64.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
- Over 24.5 Yards: Longest Reception (-110)
When looking at the season-long history of WRs against the Saints this season, it’s clear that the No. 2 option is the way to go. All three WRs to exceed 100+ yards against them have not been the go-to guy. To put it simply, the New Orleans defense is pretty damn good and knows what it’s doing against the opposition’s best weapons.
While we can make the argument that Jefferson is NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, he still comes second, or even third, in the Vikings’ pecking order to RB Dalvin Cook and WR Adam Thielen. Jefferson has exceeded 100 yards in two of the last three games and has also done so six times this season.
I do expect the Saints to come out on fire, which should put the Vikings in an urgent moment offensively. More passing = more chances for Jefferson.
Kirk Cousins (Minnesota Vikings) at New Orleans Saints
Friday, 4:30 pm EST | Watch: FOX/NFL Network
Mercedes-Benz Superdome – New Orleans, LA
Prop Bets Watch:
- Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-125)
- Over 21.5 Passing Completions (-110)
As I just mentioned, I do expect the Vikings to be in pass-heavy mode on Friday. Another part of that reasoning is that it’s incredibly tough to run the football against the Saints, who rank first in run defense DVOA allow the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game on the ground (95.6).
Say what you want about Cousins, but he’s got enough weapons nowadays to get the ball in the end zone. In fact, the creator of the “You Like That?” tag line has multiple TD passes in six of his last seven games. Additionally, Cousins has 22 or more completions in six straight games.
