Wednesday night is shaping up to be yet another big slate of MLB action.
Yesterday’s article was another profitable one, going 2-1 for the people. The Kansas City Royals not only won but covered the +1.5 run line, against the Cleveland Indians; the other win was the Pittsburgh Pirates over the Chicago White Sox. The only loss of the night was the Milwaukee Brewers falling to the Detroit Tigers.
In this article, we’ll take a look at the best value MLB plays we can find from a few of today’s games. All of the odds are according to DraftKings Sportsbook.
Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Indians
6:10 p.m. EST | Watch: MLB Network
Starting Pitchers
KC: Danny Duffy – L (2-3, 4.83 ERA/1.20 WHIP this season)
CLE: Carlos Carrasco – R (203, 3.43 ERA/1.33 WHIP this season)
Total: 8 runs | Over: -105 | Under: -117
KC | Moneyline: +175 | Run Line +1.5: -129
CLE | Moneyline: -220 | Run Line -1.5: +108
Where’s the Money Going? (as of 1:30 p.m. EST today)
Moneyline: CLE, 71% of bets | CLE, 76% of money
Run Line: CLE, 66% of bets | CLE, 90% of money
Total: Under, 58% of bets | Under, 93% of money
Betting Pick: Under 8 runs (-117)
It’s a good day when you see such an overwhelming amount of money heading in one direction while the number of bets isn’t too far from 50/50. That’s exactly what we’ve got on the total going under eight runs today. In fact, there was even a massive implied team total dip from the Indians of -0.4.
Carrasco has been outstanding in his last two outings, allowing only one run and eight hits over 12 innings. Duffy, however, is coming off of his worst outing of the season, allowing six over six innings. It will certainly do Duffy some good to see another team, as he has only faced the Twins and White Sox in his only five starts of the season. Nevertheless, the 10 mph winds blowing in from right field should help things out quite a bit.
Baltimore Orioles at New York Mets
7:10 p.m. EST | Watch: MLB Extra Innings
Starting Pitchers
BAL: Jorge Lopez – R (1-0, 5.59 ERA/1.29 WHIP this season)
NYM: Rick Porcello – R (1-4, 5.54 ERA/1.46 WHIP this season)
Total: 9.5 runs | Over: -106 | Under: -115
BAL | Moneyline: +163 | Run Line +1.5: -124
NYM | Moneyline: -190 | Run Line -1.5: +105
Where’s the Money Going? (as of 1:30 p.m. EST today)
Moneyline: BAL, 72% of bets | NYM, 89% of money
Run Line: BAL, 62% of bets | BAL, 98% of money
Total: Over, 71% of bets | Over, 87% of money
Betting Pick: Mets Run Line -1.5 (+105)
After taking an ass kicking last night, the Mets will look to right their wrongs against the Orioles. The differential in number of bets for Baltimore to amount of money bet on New York is the largest difference of any bet on any game today. That’s an excellent piece of info, in addition to the fact that the Orioles ITT got a -0.4 decrease – tied for second largest deficit on the slate.
Lopez has been roped on the road this season for a 7.11 ERA and 1.74 WHIP. I fully expect the Mets offense to put some runs on the board early and never look back. Meanwhile, Porcello has been strong over his last two starts, allowing two runs apiece in matchups against the Phillies and Yankees.
Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers
8:05 p.m. EST | Watch: MLB Extra Innings
Starting Pitchers
LAA: Julio Teheran – R (0-2, 7.94 ERA/1.59 WHIP this season)
TEX: Kyle Cody – R (0-0, 0.00 ERA/0.95 WHIP this season)
Total: 10 runs | Over: -108 | Under: -113
LAA | Moneyline: -117 | Run Line -1.5: +133
TEX | Moneyline: +100 | Run Line +1.5: -157
Where’s the Money Going? (as of 1:30 p.m. EST today)
Moneyline: LAA, 56% of bets | TEX, 72% of money
Run Line: TEX, 90% of bets | TEX, 63% of money
Total: Over, 82% of bets | Over, 83% of money
Betting Pick: Over 10 runs (-108)
Whenever Teheran is on the mound, there’s a damn good shot of runs crossing the plate. In fact, all six of his appearances (five starts) had the game total reach double-digits. Reason being: Teheran just isn’t a good pitcher anymore. The Rangers will likely only get about three or four innings from Cody before handing it off to the bullpen.
While most of the bets and money are heading toward the total going over, it comes with good reasoning as both teams received a slight bump in ITTs – LAA: +0.3, TEX: +0.2.
