Welcome back to another jam-packed day of MLB action.
Yesterday’s games were the first losing day of this week, as I went 1-2. Thankfully, the Seattle Mariners were able to get the win over the Texas Rangers. However, the Philadelphia Phillies-New York Mets game just missed going over the 9.5 total while the Oakland A’s got clobbered late by the San Diego Padres.
In this article, we’ll take a look at the odds and best value plays we can find from a few of today’s MLB games. All of the odds are according to DraftKings Sportsbook.
Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets
7:10 p.m. EST | Watch: MLB Extra Innings
Starting Pitchers
PHI: Spencer Howard – R (1-1, 5.40 ERA/1.86 WHIP this season)
NYM: Seth Lugo – R (1-2, 2.12 ERA/0.94 ERA this season)
Total: 9.5 runs | Over: -103 | Under: -120
PHI | Moneyline: +133 | Run Line +1.5: -150
NYM | Moneyline: -155 | Run Line -1.5: +125
Where’s the Money Going? (as of 10:30 a.m. EST today)
Moneyline: 50/50 % of bets | NYM, 94% of money
Run Line: PHI, 87% of bets | PHI, 79% of money
Total: Over, 59% of bets | Under, 85% of money
Betting Pick: Mets Run Line -1.5 (+125)
While the number of bets is split between the two teams, the Mets are clearly getting more money. New York does have the better starting pitcher in this matchup, with Lugo taking aim at Philly in this one. I trust his stuff in a game the Mets desperately need to keep pace. The Phils have now won 10 of their last 11 games, but I do feel like a letdown is in order tonight.
Milwaukee Brewers at Cleveland Indians
7:10 p.m. EST | Watch: MLB Extra Innings
Starting Pitchers
MIL: Brandon Woodruff – R (2-3, 3.67 ERA/1.18 WHIP this season)
CLE: Aaron Civale – R (3-4, 3.72 ERA/1.11 WHIP this season)
Total: 7.5 runs | Over: -110 | Under: -110
MIL | Moneyline: +110 | Run Line +1.5: -200
CLE | Moneyline: -127 | Run Line -1.5: +163
Where’s the Money Going? (as of 10:30 a.m. EST today)
Moneyline: CLE, 82% of bets | MIL, 70% of money
Run Line: CLE, 66% of bets | N/A % of money
Total: Under, 60% of bets | Under, 78% of money
Betting Pick: Brewers Moneyline (+110) / Under 7.5 runs (-110)
Two picks coming from this game – both of which probably won’t be the popular opinion. It was clear as day, looking at the huge differential of bets on Cleveland and total money wagered on Milwaukee. And it comes with good reasoning. Woodruff is a fantastic pitcher, although it may not have exactly showed yet this season. Civale will do his best to keep the score down against a much different Brewers team that we’ve seen in the past.
Both teams had a decrease in team totals – MIL: -0.3, CLE: -0.2 – so that’s usually a good sign that offense will be on the back burner tonight.
