Tuesday has some more interesting matchups on the MLB schedule, filled divisional rivalries to make up the schedule. If there’s anything we’re learning this season, it’s that following the betting percentages and trends has never been more important.
It was a perfect 3-0 night for me in Monday’s article, with the St. Louis Cardinals and Philadelphia Phillies winning outright while the San Diego Padres-Colorado Rockies matchup only mustered six runs, falling well short of the 12.5 total.
In this article, we’ll take a look at the odds and best value plays we can find from a few of today’s MLB games. All of the odds are according to DraftKings Sportsbook.
St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds
6:40 p.m. EST | Watch: MLB Extra Innings
Starting Pitchers
STL: Kwang-Hyun Kim – L (1-0, 1.08 ERA/0.90 WHIP this season)
CIN: Sonny Gray – R (5-1, 1.94 ERA/1.01 WHIP this season)
Total: 8.5 runs | Over: -114 | Under: -107
STL | Moneyline: +135 | Run Line +1.5: -152
CIN | Moneyline: -157 | Run Line -1.5: +128
Where’s the Money Going? (as of 11:00 a.m. EST today)
Moneyline: STL, 55% of bets | CIN, 93% of money
Run Line: CIN, 92% of bets | STL, 74% of money
Total: Under, 68% of bets | Over, 72% of money
Betting Pick: Reds Moneyline (-157)
Right off the bat, there’s a huge difference between the number of public bets and money wagered – the Cardinals are narrowly getting the public market while the Reds are dominating the money coming in. In addition, Cincy got a nice +0.4 increase to its implied team total.
Gray has been remarkable this season, especially at home, going 4-0 with a 1.07 ERA and 38 strikeouts over 25 1/3 innings (4 starts). I watched a lot of Kim’s last start against the Pirates, and it seems like the league is starting to catch up to him. While Pittsburgh only got him for one run, Kim had a ton of solid contact against him all day.
The disparity between public bets and money wagered on the total is quite telling, with the likely outcome being the total going over. If that’s the case, I’d expect the Reds offense to be the one doing most of the damage.
Top MLB Sportsbook
Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates
7:05 p.m. EST | Watch: MLB Extra Innings
Starting Pitchers
CHC: Jon Lester – L (2-1, 4.55 ERA/1.20 WHIP this season)
PIT: Chad Kuhl – R (1-1, 2.52 ERA/1.08 WHIP this season)
Total: 9.5 runs | Over: -107 | Under: -113
CHC | Moneyline: -159 | Run Line -1.5: +100
PIT | Moneyline: +138 | Run Line +1.5: -118
Where’s the Money Going? (as of 11:00 a.m. EST today)
Moneyline: CHC, 69% of bets | CHC, 84% of money
Run Line: CHC, 69% of bets | CHC, 66% of money
Total: Over, 65% of bets | Under, 69% of money
Betting Pick: Over 9.5 runs (-107)
Looking at the implied team totals, it’s nice to see the Cubs getting a +0.4 increase and the Pirates also get a small one at +0.1. I’m not much of a believer in Lester, who routinely puts guys on base. Kuhl has had a nice resurgence coming back from Tommy John surgery, but he does have a 1-6 record and 6.75 ERA in 10 lifetime appearances (nine starts) against Chicago.
We have two of the better teams at hitting the over this season, as the Cubs are No. 2 (58.8%) and the Pirates are No. 5 (57.1%). Although tonight’s game is at PNC Park, notoriously known to help pitchers, the 9.5 total tells the whole story. Only 2 games had a total of 9.5 or more in Pittsburgh this season, and both of them went over.
Cleveland Indians at Kansas City Royals
8:05 p.m. EST | Watch: MLB Extra Innings
Starting Pitchers
CLE: Zach Plesac – R (1-1, 1.29 ERA/0.67 WHIP this season)
KC: Matt Harvey – R (0-1, 11.12 ERA/2.29 WHIP this season)
Total: 9 runs | Over: -108 | Under: -113
CLE | Moneyline: -186 | Run Line -1.5: -109
KC | Moneyline: +160 | Run Line +1.5: -109
Where’s the Money Going? (as of 11:00 a.m. EST today)
Moneyline: KC, 55% of bets | CLE, 79% of money
Run Line: N/A % of bets | N/A of money
Total: Over, 67% of bets | Over, 95% of money
Betting Pick: Indians Run Line -1.5: -109
I don’t know about you, but I’ve got absolutely no faith whatsoever in Harvey. In his first two starts with KC, it has been the same story – start strong and then crushed late. It truly is remarkable, but Harvey hasn’t allowed a hit in the first two innings of each of those first two starts and then seven runs in the 1 1/3 combined innings he’s lasted afterwards.
The Indians usually make a great run line bet because of their starting pitching; if you’re keeping runs off the board, you’re winning half the battle. Plesac has been fantastic to start the season and even owns a 3-0 lifetime record and 2.11 ERA in four starts against KC.
