The Houston Cougars have been a metrics darling all year long, and they’ve proven the metrics right again by defeating the South Region’s top seed, the Arizona Wildcats, in the Sweet 16. That puts them in their second straight Elite 8, where they will take on a Villanova Wildcats squad that has taken down three lesser teams in the first three rounds of the March Madness NCAA Tournament.
The Cougars made the Final Four a year ago, but the Wildcats are certainly no strangers to this level of basketball. Villanova hasn’t been beaten in an NCAA Tournament game in an even year since 2014, winning the title in 2016 and 2018 before COVID-19 wiped out the 2020 edition of March Madness. Both teams have tournament experience and are ranked in the top 25 in points against, which could make this a contest of who can get the best looks over the course of 40 minutes — and ultimately make that final shot.
Houston Cougars vs. Villanova Wildcats Odds, Trends, and Picks
March Madness NCAA Tournament Elite 8 Betting Odds and Lines
| Houston Cougars | vs. | Villanova Wildcats |
| -150 | Moneyline | +130 |
| -3 | Spread | +3 |
| Over 127 | Total | Under 127 |
| (32-5 SU, 25-12 ATS) | Betting Trends | (29-7 SU, 20-16 ATS) |
When: Saturday, March 26 at 6:09 p.m.
Where: AT&T Center, San Antonio
Houston Cougars vs. Villanova Wildcats Spread Pick
Houston might be playing the most impressive basketball of anyone in the nation right now, and that’s part of the reason they are 3-points favorites in the South Region final. But the Cougars have not faced a 3-point shooting team as effective as what Villanova brings to the table. The Wildcats can stroke it from the perimeter and won’t mind taking fouls from the Houston defense on the interior — another plus as Nova is No. 1 in the nation from the free throw line (82.6%).
When the Cougars struggled with Memphis and Southern Methodist in the AAC season, it was because the Tigers and the Mustangs both got hot from 3-point range. Villanova can do that too and does it better than either of those squads. However, this won’t be a runaway as Houston can score the rock as well, averaging 75.7 point per game (53rd in the nation).
This game looks like it will be a one possession game, and the spread says that as well. I think it’s best to take the Wildcats plus the three points, at the cost of a bit of extra juice, as they can win outright or fall short by three or fewer.
Houston Cougars vs Villanova Wildcats Spread Pick: Villanova +3
Houston Cougars vs. Villanova Wildcats Total Pick
Picking the over/under in a Villanova game is one of the toughest plays in college basketball. That’s because the Wildcats are such good shooters — both from three and the free throw line. They can turn a slow-paced rock fight into an over in a matter of minutes. With Collin Gillespie firing away, Villanova should hit more than a few 3-pointers, especially against a Houston defense that doesn’t defend quite as well on the perimeter as it does inside it. Remember, Houston has only faced one team that favors the three in NCAA Tournament (UAB in First Round), and that was the only game during their March Madness run that has hit the over.
The total in this content is low (127 points) because both teams play slow and Houston boasts the best field goal percentage defense in the nation at 37.2 percent. But Villanova shoots free throws better than anyone in the country, and I think Houston’s aggressive defense is going to send the Wildcats to the line fairly often, especially in the second half. As long as the Wildcats are scoring points with the clock stopped, they can push this total over the number.
Houston Cougars vs Villanova Wildcats Total Pick: Over 127 points
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