Week 11 of the NFL season gets kicked off with a Thursday Night Football matchup between the New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons. In this article, I will identify the three most profitable bets from this contest. Plus, I’ll show you which NFL betting sites are offering the best NFL odds.
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The Patriots are finally hitting their stride with wins in each of their last four games. On the other sideline, the Falcons will be looking to make things right after a 40-point loss on Sunday. There are a few injuries to each side, so that will certainly have an impact on the picks in this matchup. Without further ado, let’s dive into my top NFL picks for Thursday night:
Patriots at Falcons – Thursday Night Football Picks
Patriots -7, (+100) at Caesars Sportsbook
This is a massive mismatch of coaching and talent on both sides of the ball, with the Patriots scoring almost 10 more points per game (27.5) and allowing almost 10 fewer points per game (17.7) than the Falcons.
New England is currently riding a four-game winning streak, outscoring its opponents by an aggregate score of 150-50. Plus, neither team played its game in Atlanta on Sunday, so the Falcons didn’t get an advantage by staying at home on the short week. So, I feel confident enough in the Patriots to hit the road and get the win.
Over 47.5 Points (-110) at PointsBet
Patriots’ games have been going over the total quite a bit in recent weeks, with five of the last six going for 47+ points. A lot of that has to do with the development of Pats QB Mac Jones, who is coming off a game with three touchdown passes against a good Cleveland Browns secondary. So, facing the Falcons is going to seem like a day in the park, especially now that all of his weapons seem to be in sync.
Meanwhile, Falcons QB Matt Ryan was absolutely throttled by the Dallas Cowboys defense last week. A crafty veteran like that would love to make right and not make it two dreadful performances in a row. The Patriots’ defense is even good for a pick-six most weeks, and the Falcons are more than capable of coughing one up.
Rhamondre Stephenson – Over Rushing Yards (TBD by Sportsbooks)
New England is a strong seven-point favorite on the road, and it looks like they’ll be without RBs Damien Harris and Brandon Bolden who only put in a limited practice on Tuesday.
Patriots head coach Bill Belichick also had an interesting quote about Stevenson the other day. Basically, he said that he was holding the fort down until Harris is ready to return – which isn’t too far away.
With Bolden questionable and Harris likely out, look for Belichick to get everything he can out of Stephenson while his play is trending upward.
