In this article, we’ll give you our top NFL picks for Week 13 of the season. These matchups include the Green Bay Packers at New York Giants, Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Jacksonville Jaguars and San Francisco 49ers at Baltimore Ravens. We study the betting lines, teams, and players to give you our recommended betting picks to beat the New Jersey sportsbooks.
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Green Bay Packers (-6.5) at New York Giants – O/U: 45
NFL Week 13 Pick: Packers (-6.5)
The 8-3 Green Bay Packers will hit the road to face the lowly 2-9 New York Giants, who are losers of seven straight. This is an opportunity for the Packers to get a decent lead in the NFC North, while the team behind them has a tough road matchup on Monday night. Our Week 13 NFL pick is for the Packers to cover the large 6.5-point spread. Let’s look at some facts to see why we’re rolling with the road-favorite.
NFL Week 13 Betting Lines Analysis: Packers at Giants
We’re getting plenty of agreement taking the Packers, as 89% of public bets and 82% of all money wagered is heading in that direction. It’s hard to argue, considering the Giants haven’t won a game since late September. The 6.5-number seems fair, but it is one that we feel fairly confident about the Packers to cover. Additionally, there are quite a few injuries to the Giants that could make this even more of a mismatch.
Packers Form
Teams that get slaughtered on national TV typically come back with tons of vengeance the next week. Because of that, we expect the Packers to come out firing on all cylinders in this matchup. After all, the Giants have no reason to be competitive for the rest of the season.
QB Aaron Rodgers has an excellent matchup to get back on track. The Giants are allowing 260 passing yards per game, which is sixth-worst in the NFL, and have a few key injuries in the secondary. Look for Rodgers to get things rolling again with Davante Adams and have a big day. This could also be a good time to get TE Jimmy Graham involved again since the Giants have been terrible defending that position for a while.
If you’re playing fantasy football this weekend. It’s worth noting that the Packers WRs/TEs have some of the best individual matchups on the board.
Giants Form
WR Golden Tate, TEs Evan Engram and Rhett Ellison, OL Zak DeOssie and S Jabrill Peppers are all among those out for the Giants on Sunday. A big “yikes” goes out to all for this one. Without having those players and some other lesser ones, it’ll be incredibly difficult for the Giants to keep up.
On a positive note, QB Daniel Jones and RB Saquon Barkley finally get to work together in these last few games of the season. There’s no chance of making the playoffs. However, these two guys can get some work in and get chemistry moving forward.
Week 13 NFL Pick: Packers (-6.5)
The Packers have already defeated the top of the NFC East (Cowboys and Eagles), and now it’s time to feast on the bottom two teams these next two weeks – they’ll face the Redskins next week. In terms of talent, there’s no doubt the Packers have the advantage here. Plus, they have something to play for. Whereas, the Giants wouldn’t mind losing to get their current head coach out of town.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars – O/U: 47.5
Week 13 NFL Pick: Over 47.5
This battle of Floridian teams might not mean much for the standings, but it doesn’t mean that we can’t have a good time. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Jacksonville Jaguars get together in what should be a high-scoring affair. That’s why our NFL pick for Week 13 in this game is for the total to go over 47.5 points. Let’s dive into the numbers to see how we landed on this decision.
NFL Week 13 Betting Lines: Buccaneers at Jaguars
The Buccaneers are getting a ton of love, with 77% of public bets and 90% of all money wagered. That part is certainly surprising but on the total there are only 63% of public bets and 60% of all money wagered going in that direction. This total opened at 49 and even dropped down to 47.5. Considering that movement, we might even see more people going toward the over.
Jacksonville is allowing an NFL-high 5.4 yards per carry, so look for Ronald Jones Jr. to have a bigger day than usual. Peyton Barber could even carry the load at times when needed.
Tampa’s pass defense is allowing the second-most passing yards per game (289.9) in the NFL. Although those numbers are horrific, the defense is also creating the seventh-most takeaways (17) this season. Look, we’re not expecting the Bucs to stop anyone, but a score from the defense is certainly possible. They did have one last in Atlanta.
Buccaneers Form
The Bucs come into Sunday’s matchup winners of two games over the last three. QB Jameis Winston has thrown for 300+ yards in eight of the last nine games, but he’s also thrown 2+ TDs in four of the last six and 2+ INTs in five of the last six. All of these numbers are great for the total going over considering good field position could be coming for the opposition. Not to mention, there could be some pick-6s coming from Winston’s arm as well.
Jacksonville is allowing an NFL-high 5.4 yards per carry, so look for Ronald Jones Jr. to have a bigger day than usual. Peyton Barber could even carry the load at times when needed.
Tampa’s pass defense is allowing the second-most passing yards per game (289.9) in the NFL. Although those numbers are horrific, the defense is also creating the seventh-most takeaways (17) this season. Look, we’re not expecting the Bucs to stop anyone, but a score from the defense is certainly possible. They did have one last in Atlanta.
Jaguars Form
QB Nick Foles returned to the Jags two weeks ago after his shoulder injury in the season opener. Despite completing 65 of his 95 passes (68.4%) with 2 TD/1 INT, both of those games were losses by 20 points or more. We’ve seen plenty of teams suffer this same fate, only to come back strong the next week. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Foles, and the Jags, rebound in this matchup against such a weak defense.
The Jags haven’t allowed a 300-yard passer since Joe Flacco all the way back in Week 4. Given how the Bucs operate their offense, this is going to be a very interesting matchup of strength versus strength. Some of these numbers are skewed, though, as some of these opponents over this stretch were either not looking to throw the ball or incapable of doing so.
Week 13 NFL Pick: Over 47.5
It’s worth noting that each of the last nine Bucs’ games has gone over the total, while three of the last four Jags’ games have done the same. We expect both QBs to have big days through the air, and that should get us going in the right direction. Not to mention, both guys are capable of turning the ball over, and that could lead to favorable field positioning for both sides.
San Francisco 49ers at Baltimore Ravens (-5.5) – O/U: 45.5
Week 13 NFL Pick: Ravens (-5.5)
We may have a Super Bowl preview when the San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens square off this Sunday. Both teams are coming off huge blowout victories and have their fair share of wins against quality opponents. Our Week 13 NFL pick in this matchup is for the Ravens to win and cover the 5.5-point spread. Let’s dive into the numbers to see why we’re going with the home-favorite.
NFL Week 13 Betting Lines: 49ers at Ravens
The bets in this matchup have gone in favor of the Ravens so far – 59% of public bets and 69% of all money wagered are going that route. There was some reasoning to this from a few pundits, in that the Ravens huge win on Monday night is the last thing people saw going into Week 13. However, the 49ers also had a huge primetime win themselves on Monday night. We don’t like that particular argument, but we’ve got our reasoning as to why the Ravens will take this one convincingly.
49ers Form
QB Jimmy Garoppolo has played well in recent games, with a total of 11 TD/3 INT in that span. It is, however, the running game the 49ers are most-notable for and will always give them a chance to win. This might come a little more difficult to come by this time around, considering the Ravens are allowing the third-fewest rushing yards per game (87.7).
You would think the 49ers defense is in a good position to stop the Ravens’ high-flying offense. San Francisco boasts the most fearsome fronts in football, with all of their former first-round picks anchoring the way up front. Well, that’s what they said about the Seahawks, Texans, Patriots and Rams – all four of which made the playoffs last season – and the Ravens won each of those games by at least 14 points. In fact, the Ravens have scored at least 41 points in each of their last three games.
49ers Form
QB Lamar Jackson made a damn good case to win the NFL’s MVP award last week. It is truly amazing to think of where this guy was as a QB at the end of last season, where Ravens’ fans wanted Joe Flacco to relieve him in the playoff loss to the Chargers.
The 49ers are allowing the sixth-most yards per carry (4.7) this season, and that’s certainly not going to work against this high-powered rushing attack. We’ve seen mobile QBs like Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray give the San Francisco defense plenty of troubles recently. This same type of offense will likely do the same.
As we mentioned earlier, the Ravens run defense is pretty amazing that’ll be the key to victory in this one. In general, their defense has allowed an average of 13.2 points per game over the last six.
Week 13 NFL Pick: Ravens (-5.5)
This Ravens team is just simply amazing and impossible to fade at this point. Even against a star-studded 49ers team, we expect the Ravens to dominate the elite competition, just like they have in recent games. While the 5.5-point spread might seem like too much to cover against the 49ers, the Ravens have plenty of those victories by at least 14 points against quality teams. They’ll do it once again.
