Saturday night has a loaded slate of MLB betting opportunities as the Chicago White Sox and Chicago Cubs continue their crosstown rivalry, the Houston Astros face the San Diego Padres and the Colorado Rockies and Los Angeles Dodgers do battle. Sure, there’s plenty of NBA and NHL action to see as well, but the boys on the diamond will always have our hearts.
In this article, we’ll take a look at the odds and best value MLB picks we can find from a few of today’s games. All of the odds are according to DraftKings Sportsbook.
Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs
8:15 p.m. EST | Watch: MLB Extra Innings
Starting Pitchers
CHW: Reynaldo Lopez – R (0-1, 54.00 ERA/7.50 WHIP this season)
CHC: Kyle Hendricks – R (3-2, 3.31 ERA/0.92 WHIP this season)
Total: 10.5 runs | Over: -110 | Under: -105
CHW | Moneyline: +155 | Run Line +1.5: -125
CHC | Moneyline: -170 | Run Line -1.5: +110
Where’s the Money Going? (as of 10:30 a.m. EST today)
Moneyline: CHC, 62% of bets | CHC, 85% of money
Run Line: CHC, 82% of bets | CHC, 73% of money
Total: Over, 56% of bets | N/A % of money
Betting Pick: Cubs Run Line -1.5 (+110)
Based on the huge 10.5 run total, we can probably expect those feisty Chicago winds to be blowing out of Wrigley Field. Hendricks is crafty enough to keep the ball inside the yard, and that will be a crucial aspect of tonight’s game. Lopez makes his first start since shoulder inflammation knocked him out 2/3 innings into his season debut. The White Sox got the upper hand in the series opener, so look for the Cubbies to come back strong and put some runs on the scoreboard. There is a ton of money coming in on the Cubs in every which direction early today. Have faith in the ways of the sharps.
Houston Astros at San Diego Padres
9:10 p.m. EST | Watch: MLB Extra Innings
Starting Pitchers
HOU: Brandon Bielak – R (3-0, 1.69 ERA/1.13 WHIP this season)
SD: Zach Davies – R (3-2, 3.25 ERA/0.87 WHIP this season)
Total: 9 runs | Over: -121 | Under: +100
HOU | Moneyline: +108 | Run Line +1.5: -195
SD | Moneyline: -125 | Run Line -1.5: +163
Where’s the Money Going? (as of 10:30 a.m. EST today)
Moneyline: SD, 52% of bets | SD, 94% of money
Run Line: SD, 75% of bets | SD, 66% of money
Total: Over, 65% of bets | Over, 99% of money
Betting Pick: Over 9 runs (-121)
If you have read my articles in the past, you know how important looking at the team-total increases and decreases are to my decisions. Both teams (SD: +0.7, HOU: +0.3) had significant increases and the total has even gone up to 9.5 already at most books. If you act quickly on DraftKings you can still get this at 9.0, considering it even moved up from its initial stance at 8.5. It is intriguing, though, considering both starting pitchers have been strong to start the season. Nevertheless, we’ll follow the money and line movements to victory in this one.
Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers
9:10 p.m. EST | Watch: ESPN+
Starting Pitchers
COL: Kyle Freeland – L (2-1, 2.56 ERA/1.11 WHIP this season)
LAD: Dustin May – R (1-1, 3.00 ERA/1.25 WHIP this season)
Total: 8.5 total | Over: -109 | Under: -110
COL | Moneyline: +190 | Run Line +1.5: -114
LAD | Moneyline: -230 | Run Line -1.5: -105
Where’s the Money Going? (as of 10:30 a.m. EST today)
Moneyline: LAD, 60% of bets | LAD, 58% of money
Run Line: LAD, 96% of bets | LAD, 99% of money
Total: Over, 57% of bets | N/A % of money
Betting Pick: Under 8.5 runs (-110)
Let’s use the same reasoning as the game above but take a different destination. I’m taking the under here, considering both teams have significant team-total decreases (LAD: -0.6, -0.4) – those are the two biggest drops for ANY teams on the slate today. This one is more understanding, though, as Freeland has continued his ground-ball dominance (14, 17, 12 GB outs in last three starts) while May has limited opponents to two runs or fewer in each of his five starts this season.
Shop around for a more favorable total here as some books have it at 9.0. The total did open at 9.5.
