The Thursday slate in MLB is a short one with half of the eight games during the afternoon and the other four at night. It’ll be a fantastic day of sports once again, with some NBA and NHL Playoff action mixed in between.
Yesterday’s article was my first losing day of the week, with two losses (Reds RL, Royals F5) that were going to be tough to hit from the start. The Twins, though, did save me from a completely miserable day by whooping the White Sox.
In this article, we’ll take a look at the odds and best value plays we can find from a few of today’s MLB games. All of the odds are according to DraftKings Sportsbook.
New York Yankees at New York Mets
4:10 p.m. EST | Watch: ESPN+
Starting Pitchers
NYY: JA Happ – L (1-1, 4.05 ERA/1.15 WHIP this season)
NYM: Robert Gsellman – R (0-0, 5.19 ERA/1.62 WHIP this season)
Total: 9.5 runs | Over: -103 | Under: -120
NYY | Moneyline: -106 | Run Line -1.5: +150
NYM | Moneyline: -110 | Run Line +1.5: -182
Where’s the Money Going? (as of 11:30 a.m. EST today)
Moneyline: NYY, 76% of bets | NYM, 90% of money
Run Line: NYY, 60% of bets | 50/50 % of money
Total: 50/50 % of bets | Under, 87% of money
Betting Pick: Mets Moneyline (-110)
We just saw this same pitching matchup on Saturday, with the Yankees getting the 2-1 victory. According to the betting percentages, we’re seeing a huge discrepancy of bets against money, as the Mets are getting much more of the sharp action.
This has been a wild season series between the teams, with the majority of these games being thrilling come-from-behind victories and close games that went down to the wire late. The Yanks have lost nine of their last 13 games and seem all out of sorts after the Rays came in the Bronx and took two of three. In addition, the Yanks currently have a -0.4 decrease from their initial team total.
San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Angels
7:10 p.m. EST | Watch: MLB Extra Innings
Starting Pitchers
SD: Mike Clevinger – R (1-1, 3.18 ERA/1.37 WHIP this season)
LAA: Andrew Heaney – L (2-2, 4.62 ERA/1.24 WHIP this season)
Total: 8.5 runs | Over: -122 | Under: +102
SD | Moneyline: -159 | Run Line +1.5: +104
LAA | Moneyline: +135 | Run Line -1.5: -122
Where’s the Money Going? (as of 11:30 a.m. EST today)
Moneyline: SD, 80% of bets | LAA, 65% of money
Run Line: SD, 58% of bets | SD, 95% of money
Total: Over, 68% of bets | Under, 95% of money
Betting Pick: Under 8.5 runs (+102)
Once again, there is a huge difference in how many bets are on the Padres and how much money is with the Angels. Perhaps, most of the San Diego hype train is driven by the fact that Clevinger will be making his debut with the team, and it is warranted as he’s 4-0 with a 2.94 ERA in six career starts against LA.
Because of Clevinger’s success against the Angels, this leads me to believe we’ll see the total go under 8.5 runs. In fact, there’s a huge discrepancy in the number of bets on the over and the amount of money coming in on the under. Heaney is coming off his best outing of the season in his last start, giving the indication that his success will continue today.
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals
8:10 p.m. EST | Watch: MLB Extra Innings
Starting Pitchers
CHW: Dylan Cease – R (4-2, 3.00 ERA/1.36 WHIP this season)
KC: Danny Duffy – L (2-2, 4.11 ERA/1.06 WHIP this season)
Total: 9.5 runs | Over: -113 | Under: -107
CHW | Moneyline: -150 | Run Line -1.5: +108
KC | Moneyline: +128 | Run Line +1.5: -129
Where’s the Money Going? (as of 11:30 a.m. EST today)
Moneyline: CHW, 79% of bets | KC, 54% of money
Run Line: CHW, 80% of bets | KC, 68% of money
Total: Over, 59% of bets | Under, 83% of money
Betting Pick: Under 9.5 (-107)
For the final time today, we’ll see a big difference in bets made to money spent – this time on the total. And it makes plenty of sense, considering both pitchers are fully capable of spinning gems in this one. When looking at the five-inning total, under 5.5 runs has a price of -132 which means we’ll probably see a low-scoring game up to that point. I’ve got confidence in the two bullpens to take us home the rest of the way.
