Happy Labor Day to everyone there! Make sure having fun and staying safe with family and loved ones.
Yesterday’s article wasn’t one of my best, as it went 1-2. The over in the Philadelphia Phillies-New York Mets game went well past the total while the 12.5 total barely missed in the St. Louis Cardinals-Chicago Cubs game and the Oakland A’s fell to the San Diego Padres.
In this article, we’ll take a look at the odds and best value plays we can find from a few of today’s MLB games. All of the odds are according to DraftKings Sportsbook.
Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets
1:10 p.m. EST | Watch: MLB Network
Starting Pitchers
PHI: Zack Wheeler – R (4-0, 2.20 ERA/1.07 WHIP this season)
NYM: David Peterson – L (4-1, 3.03 ERA/1.21 WHIP this season)
Total: 9 runs | Over: -122 | Under: +102
PHI | Moneyline: -120 | Run Line -1.5: +135
NYM | Moneyline: +104 | Run Line +1.5: -159
Where’s the Money Going (as of 12 p.m. EST today)
Moneyline: PHI, 72% of bets | PHI, 83% of money
Run Line: PHI, 74% of bets | PHI, 54% of money
Total: Under, 59% of bets | Over, 83% of money
Betting Pick: Phillies Moneyline (-120)
We can talk about betting percentages and everything in between, but today’s game has everything to do with motivation for the Phillies. Wheeler will be making his first start in the stadium he called home for many years. A few weeks ago, he held the Mets to two runs over seven innings en route to the win.
Philly would like to get some redemption as a whole, losing yesterday 14-1 against New York. The Phils did get a +0.4 implied team total increase, which is tied for the highest on the slate.
New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays
6:37 p.m. EST | Watch: MLB Extra Innings
Starting Pitchers
NYY: Jordan Montgomery – L (2-2, 5.76 ERA/1.28 WHIP this season)
TOR: Hyun-Jin Ryu – L (3-1, 2.51 ERA/1.09 WHIP this season)
Total: 9.5 runs | Over: +100 | Under: -121
NYY | Moneyline: +114 | Run Line +1.5: -167
TOR | Moneyline: -137 | Run Line -1.5: +140
Where’s the Money Going (as of 12 p.m. EST today)
Moneyline: TOR, 67% of bets | NYY, 69% of money
Run Line: NYY, 79% of bets | Under, 72% of money
Total: Over, 62% of bets | Under, 96% of money
Betting Pick: Yankees Moneyline (+114)
The Yankees are rarely underdogs, but apparently they like this spot, going 5-2 in this spot. Even better for their case is the fact that the Blue Jays are 4-12 as favorites.
Looking at the betting percentages, Toronto is getting two-thirds of the bets while New York is getting the same amount in terms of money wagered. The Yankees also got a +0.4 implied team total increase, tying them for highest on the slate.
Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants
8:05 p.m. EST | Watch: MLB Extra Innings
Starting Pitchers
ARZ: Zac Gallen – R (1-0, 1.80 ERA/0.94 WHIP this season)
SF: Kevin Gausman – R (2-2, 4.43 ERA/1.18 WHIP this season)
Total: 8 runs | Over: -103 | Under: -120
ARZ | Moneyline: +105 | Run Line -1.5: +165
SF | Moneyline: -122 | Run Line +1.5: -200
Where’s the Money Going (as of 12 p.m. EST today)
Moneyline: 50/50 % of bets | SF, 83% of money
Run Line: 50/50 % of bets | Under, 64% of money
Total: ARZ, 72% of bets | SF, 67% of money
Betting Pick: Giants Moneyline (-122)
The Giants have all sorts of trends heading in their favor, so this is the obvious side to take. First, San Fran’s moneyline increased 32 digits since the open, the most of any team on today’s slate. Also, just like the first two teams we took for today, the Giants got a +0.4 increase in implied team total.
In addition, the betting percentages are in our favor here: while the number of bets is split, the Giants are getting an overwhelming amount of money pour in on them.
