It’s yet another great day of MLB action, with a loaded slate for Tuesday. In yesterday’s article, I went 2-1 with the picks – the two wins: Miami Marlins moneyline (+102) and u7.5 in the game between the Oakland A’s and Texas Rangers, the loss: the Arizona Diamondbacks falling to the Colorado Rockies.
The three games I’m writing about today all have some type of rivalry aspect attached to them: the Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals, Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Indians, and Kansas City Royals at St. Louis Cardinals.
In this article, we’ll take a look at the odds and best value plays we can find from a few of today’s MLB games. All of the odds are according to DraftKings Sportsbook.
Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals
6:05 p.m. EST | Watch: MLB Extra Innings
Starting Pitchers
PHI: Jake Arrieta – R (1-3, 4.95 ERA/1.40 WHIP this season)
WSH: Erick Fedde – R (1-1, 2.55 ERA/1.53 WHIP this season)
Total: 10.5 runs | Over: -114 | Under: -107
PHI | Moneyline: -118 | Run Line -1.5: +128
WSH | Moneyline: +100 | Run Line +1.5: -155
Where’s the Money Going (as of 10:45 a.m. EST today)
Moneyline: PHI, 65% of bets | PHI, 71% of money
Run Line: WSH, 72% of bets | WSH, 64% of money
Total: Over, 65% of bets | Over, 94% of money
Betting Pick: Over 10.5 runs (-114)
I’d love to just roll with my Phillies in this matchup, but their bullpen is too risky to deal with. Taking the over does seem like a great safe haven, considering that nearly all of the money is heading in that direction. The already-high 10-run total is where the line started and has now moved up to 10.5, so that makes things slightly harder. Nevertheless, the Phils got a massive +0.8 boost to their team total and that’s always a good sign of offense on the horizon. As I mentioned earlier, Philly’s bullpen can probably add some life to the 10.5-run total.
Top MLB Sportsbooks
Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Indians
7:10 p.m. EST | Watch: MLB Extra Innings
Starting Pitchers
MIN: Rich Hill – L (1-1, 4.70 ERA/1.30 WHIP this season)
CLE: Shane Bieber – R (5-0, 1.11 ERA/0.76 WHIP this season)
Total: 8 runs | Over: -113 | Under: -108
MIN | Moneyline: +148 | Run Line +1.5: -139
CLE | Moneyline: -175 | Run Line -1.5: +118
Where’s the Money Going (as of 10:45 a.m. EST today)
Moneyline: CLE, 67% of bets | MIN, 67% of money
Run Line: CLE, 57% of bets | MIN, 54% of money
Total: Under, 74% of bets | Under, 91% of money
Betting Pick: Under 8 runs (-108)
We’ve got two fantastic starting pitchers going against one another with Bieber, of course, being the much better of the two pitchers. There is a ton of money coming in on the total going under, and you just love to see that along with the team-total decreases for each team – CLE: -0.3, MIN: -0.2 – while the total has stayed right there at 8.0 the whole time. There have been five games between the teams this season and none of them have exceeded five runs. Today is not the day to get cute and think the trend will be broken.
Kansas City Royals at St. Louis Cardinals
8:15 p.m. EST | Watch: MLB Extra Innings
Starting Pitchers
KC: Matt Harvey – R (0-1, 9.00 ERA/2.00 WHIP this season)
STL: Adam Wainwright – R (2-0, 2.00 ERA/0.83 WHIP this season)
Total: 9 runs | Over: -121 | Under: +100
KC | Moneyline: +180 | Run Line: +1.5: -115
STL | Moneyline: -215 | Run Line -1.5: -104
Where’s the Money Going (as of 10:45 a.m. EST today)
Moneyline: STL, 73% of bets | STL, 66% of money
Run Line: STL, 84% of bets | STL, 97% of money
Total: Under, 74% of bets | Over, 70% of money
Betting Pick: Cardinals Run Line -1.5 (-115)
The appetite for the Cardinals’ run line bet hinges solely on Wainwright taking the mound. In three starts, St. Louis has outscored its opponents by the score of 19-6 – the only misnomer was his last start (a one-run win) but two of the four runs he allowed were unearned. It also helps Harvey is on the mound for the Royals, his second time doing so with the team. In his KC debut, Harvey was clocked as low as 91 mph on the radar gun by the end of his night, which only lasted three innings. Look for the Cardinals to jump on him early and never look back.
