Wednesday is another fantastic day of MLB action with more rivalry matchups on the slate. Tonight’s games included in tonight’s article are the Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals, Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Indians, and Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants.
Last night was a bit of a nail biter, as my picks in yesterday’s article went 2-1. The Phillies-Nationals game barely squeaked over the 10.5-run total (which actually moved to 11.0 later in the day) and the 7.5-total held strong after a few early runs in the Twins-Indians game. The one misnomer, though, was the St. Louis Cardinals losing to the Kansas City Royals and failing to cover the run line.
In this article, we’ll take a look at the odds and best value plays we can find from a few of today’s MLB games. All of the odds are according to DraftKings Sportsbook.
Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals
6:05 p.m. EST | Watch: ESPN+
Starting Pitchers
PHI: Aaron Nola – R (2-2, 3.10 ERA/0.90 WHIP this season)
WSH: Patrick Corbin – L (2-2, 3.99 ERA/1.26 WHIP this season)
Total: 9 runs | Over: +100 | Under: -121
PHI | Moneyline: -117 | Run Line -1.5: +135
WSH | Moneyline: +102 | Run Line +1.5: -162
Where’s the Money Going? (As of 11:30 a.m. EST today)
Moneyline: PHI, 62% of bets | PHI, 63% of money
Run Line: WSH, 74% of bets | WSH, 58% of money
Total: Over, 66% of bets | Under, 85% of money
Betting Pick: Under 9 (-121)
You better jump all over this 9-run total while it lasts (like I did), because I bet it won’t be there for long. We’ve got two of the best starting pitchers in baseball in a matchup that both teams desperately need to win. Not to mention, we’re all already seeing 85 percent of all money wagered heading toward the total going under nine runs. Looking at the team-total movements, the Nationals currently have a -0.4 decrease while the Phillies are at -0.2.
Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Indians
7:10 p.m. EST | Watch: MLB Extra Innings
Starting Pitchers
MIN: Jose Berrios – R (2-3, 4.75 ERA/1.38 WHIP this season)
CLE: Mike Clevinger – R (1-1, 3.24 ERA/1.32 WHIP this season)
Total: 8.5 runs | Over: -115 | Under: -106
MIN | Moneyline: -107 | Run Line -1.5: +155
CLE | Moneyline: -110 | Run Line +1.5: -190
Where’s the Money Going? (As of 11:30 a.m. EST today)
Moneyline: CLE, 62% of bets | MIN, 62% of money
Run Line: 50/50 % of bets | CLE, 99% of money
Total: Under, 58% of bets | Over, 97% of money
Betting Pick: Over 8.5 runs (-115)
This may not seem like the pitching matchup to take the over in, but I do feel like there are some finer points to look at here. Clevinger has a very mediocre 4-4 record and 3.14 ERA in 15 career starts against the Twins. His last one came last month, as Clevinger allowed four runs on six hits (2 HR) and five walks over four innings. Berrios isn’t great against this opponent either, going 5-3 with a 3.90 ERA in 12 career starts against the Tribe. If I’m ever going to bet against Berrios, it’s on the road; he just isn’t the same type of pitcher away from Target Field.
Latest MLB Sportsbook Offers
Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants
9:45 p.m. EST | Watch: ESPN
Starting Pitchers
LAD: Clayton Kershaw – L (3-1, 2.25 ERA/0.79 WHIP this season)
SF: Kevin Gausman – R (1-1, 4.65 ERA/1.29 WHIP this season)
Total: 8 runs | Over: -113 | Under: -108
LAD | Moneyline: -245 | Run Line -1.5: -148
SF | Moneyline: +210 | Run Line +1.5: +125
Where’s the Money Going? (As of 11:30 a.m. EST today)
Moneyline: LAD, 74% of bets | LAD, 87% of money
Run Line: LAD, 73% of bets | LAD, 77% of money
Total: Over, 54% of bets | Under, 96% of money
Betting Pick: Under 8 (-108)
Kershaw wasn’t great in his last outing against the Giants, which is really a bit of a surprise, but I like him to bounce back tonight. Over the course of his career, the lefty has been outstanding with a 23-13 record and 1.82 ERA in 39 starts. In fact, Kershaw is actually 13-5 with a 1.57 ERA in 25 appearances (23 starts) at Oracle Park. Gausman has done just fine, allowing three runs or fewer in four of his five starts this season. One of those starts was against the Dodgers, about two and a half weeks ago, allowing only one run on three hits over 6 1/3 innings and striking out six. It also helps that so much money has already gone toward the under.
