Thursday will certainly be an interesting day around Major League Baseball with quite a few doubleheaders taking place. After the social injustice rallies around America have grown larger, the awareness is starting to increase as well. Players will be playing with heavy hearts all around the league today.
Yesterday was a good day for me, going 2-0 on the strength of the u9 total in the Philadelphia Phillies-Washington Nationals game and the o8.5 in the Minnesota Twins-Cleveland Indians game. I also had the u8 in the Los Angeles Dodgers-San Francisco Giants game, but it was postponed due to the boycotting.
In this article, we’ll take a look at the odds and the best value MLB picks we can find from a few of today’s games. All of the odds are according to DraftKings Sportsbook.
Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers (Game 1 of Double-Header)
5:10 p.m. EST | Watch: MLB Extra Innings
Starting Pitchers
CIN: Sonny Gray – R (4-1, 2.21 ERA/0.98 WHIP this season)
MIL: Adrian Houser – R (1-2, 3.72 ERA/1.24 WHIP this season)
Total: 6 runs | Over: -114 | Under: -106
CIN | Moneyline: -129 | Run Line -1.5: +143
MIL | Moneyline: +110 | Run Line +1.5: -175
Where’s the Money Going? (As of 11:30 a.m. EST today)
Moneyline: MIL, 59% of bets | CIN, 85% of money
Run Line: N/A % of bets | N/A % of money
Total: N/A % of bets | Under, 85% of money
Betting Pick: Reds Moneyline (-129)
There is such a large disparity in public bets against money wagered, that we have no choice but to roll with the Reds in this scenario. It’s an added advantage that we get the better pitcher here too, with Gray. Perhaps a day off will give the Reds a chance to regroup, and they need it with only six runs over the last four games. Houser has really struggled of late with an 0-2 record and 5.82 ERA in his last three starts.
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Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers
6:37 p.m. EST | Watch: FOX
Starting Pitchers
OAK: Chris Bassitt – R (2-1, 2.97 ERA/1.08 WHIP this season)
TEX: Jordan Lyles – R (1-3, 9.25 ERA/1.89 WHIP this season)
Total: 9.5 runs | Over: -112 | Under: -109
OAK | Moneyline: -195 | Run Line -1.5: -127
TEX | Moneyline: +165 | Run Line +1.5: +107
Where’s the Money Going? (As of 11:30 a.m. EST today)
Moneyline: OAK, 76% of bets | 50/50 % of money
Run Line: OAK, 71% of bets | OAK, 97% of money
Total: Under, 60% of bets | Over, 85% of money
Betting Pick: Over 9.5 runs (-112)
There are a lot of interesting takeaways from the public vs. sharp betting tendencies on this game. For one, the sharps have been hammering the over while the total actually moved from 10 to 9.5. The other is that the Rangers have been taking some sharp action, leading me to believe the team will get to that point by scoring runs. Lyles hasn’t been great this season, especially at home with a 7.16 ERA. Bassitt has struggled on the road, allowing seven runs over the last 11 innings away from Oakland.
Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers
7:10 p.m. EST | Watch: MLB Extra Innings
Starting Pitchers
MIN: Randy Dobnak – R (5-1, 1.78 ERA/1.02 WHIP this season)
DET: Matthew Boyd – L (0-4, 8.48 ERA/1.74 WHIP this season)
Total: 9.5 runs | Over: -103 | Under: -120
MIN | Moneyline: -155 | Run Line +1.5: +100
DET | Moneyline: +130 | Run Line -1.5: -118
Where’s the Money Going? (As of 11:30 a.m. EST today)
Moneyline: MIN, 79% of bets | MIN, 80% of money
Run Line: MIN, 60% of bets | MIN, 93% of money
Total: Under, 52% of bets | Under, 75% of money
Betting Pick: Under 9.5 runs (-120)
It may shock some people to know that the Twins aren’t necessarily getting it done with the longball as often as they used to. In fact, Twins games have the second-lowest percentage of hitting the over this season (30%). That’s insane! Perhaps, we can chalk that up to six meetings against the Indians this season, but it is still shocking, to say the least. Dobnak has been simply magnificent this season while Boyd is just looking to get back to his 2019 form. According to the betting percentages, he may do just that tonight.
