Monday is a jam-packed day of MLB action, with plenty of games going on that are critical to the standings. Today at 4:00 p.m. EST is the trade deadline, and we’re seeing teams define themselves as buyers and sellers. A big deal went down earlier today, sending Mike Clevinger from the Cleveland Indians to the San Diego Padres.
In this article, we’ll take a look at the odds and best value MLB picks we can find from today’s games. All of the odds are according to DraftKings Sportsbook.
St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds
6:40 p.m. EST | Watch: ESPN
Starting Pitchers
STL: Dakota Hudson – R (0-2, 3.32 ERA/1.05 WHIP this season)
CIN: Anthony DeSclafani – R (1-1, 5.71 ERA/1.38 WHIP this season)
Total: 9 runs | Over: -124 | Under: +102
STL | Moneyline: +100 | Run Line +1.5: -200
CIN | Moneyline: -118 | Run Line -1.5: +165
Where’s the Money Going? (as of 12:30 p.m. EST today)
Moneyline: STL, 53% of bets | STL, 79% of money
Run Line: CIN, 63% of bets | STL, 75% of money
Total: Under, 52% of bets | Over, 84% of money
Betting Pick: Cardinals Moneyline (+100)
With most of the money heading in the Cards’ direction, I’ll have no choice but to take notice here. They broke out of an offensive slump yesterday, with a 7-2 win over the Indians, and it looks like more of the same will happen tonight. St. Louis received a +0.4 increase to its implied team total, giving optimism that the bats will be doing some hitting tonight. Not to mention, there’s a ton of money coming in on the total going over.
DeSclafani has struggled this season, and two of the best bats in the STL lineup (Paul Goldschmidt, 11-for-23, 4 doubles, HR | Matt Carpenter, 13-for-29, 2 doubles, triple, 4 HR) have clubbed him over the course of his career.
Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies
7:05 p.m. EST | MLB Extra Innings
Starting Pitchers
WSH: Erick Fedde – R (1-2, 3.57 ERA/1.54 WHIP this season)
PHI: Spencer Howard – R (0-1, 6.17 ERA/2.06 WHIP this season)
Total: 10 | Over: -117 | Under: -105
WSH | Moneyline: +120 | Run Line +1.5: -165
PHI | Moneyline: -139 | Run Line -1.5: +138
Where’s the Money Going? (as of 12:30 p.m. EST today)
Moneyline: PHI, 63% of bets | PHI, 94% of money
Run Line: PHI, 58% of bets | PHI, 96% of money
Total: Over, 86% of bets | Over, 98% of money
Betting Pick: Phillies Moneyline (-139)
Early indications are that the Phils are going to take tonight’s game, with a good portion of the money heading their way. Not to mention, Philly did get a sizeable +0.5 boost to its implied team total while Washington’s has remained the same.
Howard hasn’t pitched well since entering the Majors, but everyone around the team knows this guy has elite stuff. Judging from the line movements and alike metrics, tonight is looking like the night he gets first MLB win. The Phils had their five-game winning streak snapped but their offense still scored 10 runs.
San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies
9:30 p.m. EST | Watch: ESPN
Starting Pitchers
SD: Garrett Richards – R (1-2, 5.17 ERA/1.53 WHIP this season)
COL: German Marquez – R (2-4, 4.50 ERA/1.33 WHIP this season)
Total: 12.5 runs | Over: -107 | Under: -114
SD | Moneyline: -109 | Run Line -1.5: +140
COL | Moneyline: -106 | Run Line +1.5: -167
Where’s the Money Going? (as of 12:30 p.m. EST today)
Moneyline: SD, 62% of bets | COL, 83% of money
Run Line: COL, 83% of bets | COL, 92% of money
Total: Over, 73% of bets | Under, 97% of money
Betting Pick: Under 12.5 runs (-114)
First of all, there’s a major difference of where this total is going in the public vs. sharp sector – and it’s not even close. It appears like the public is blindly throwing money towards the total while others are saying, “hold up a sec!”
The implied team totals also took a major dip, as the Padres dropped -0.7 and the Rockies by -0.2. It is possible that San Diego could be a bit out of sorts tonight, considering all of the roster moves that were made prior to this game. Marquez is a solid pitcher and may have himself a big night tonight.
