With the weather affecting several games on Tuesday, Wednesday presents a perfect opportunity to discuss the science of betting on baseball doubleheaders.
When making your MLB picks on the first game of a traditional doubleheader (especially on a Wednesday) it’s important to think about the long-term ramifications of the contest.
The reason being is that Wednesday is usually a getaway day. Therefore, if teams have a doubleheader scheduled on a Wednesday, it means it’s tough to make it up without sacrificing an off day later in the year.
As a result, you’ll often see the first game played out in a defensive manner, as both teams are thinking about playing another nine innings after the first game is over. Additionally, on a getaway day, they’re also thinking about traveling to the next city and playing there the next night, so there’s even more incentive to get the first game over with as quickly as possible.
We’ve got a couple of those situations today with the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Detroit Tigers in one matchup and the San Diego Padres and Cleveland Guardians in another.
All of those teams feature either strong pitching or weak hitting (or both, in the case of Cleveland), which should offer some solid opportunities for early cash.
With that in mind, here are the odds and lines for May 4.
MLB Odds, Schedule, and Probable Pitchers
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins
Run Line: ARI: +1.5 (-165) | MIA: -1.5 (+170)
Moneyline: ARI: +100 | MIA: -120
Over/Under: 7 (-110)
Diamondbacks vs. Marlins Starting Pitchers: Madison Bumgarner (ARI) vs. Elieser Hernandez (MIA)
Diamondbacks vs. Marlins Game Time: 12:40 p.m. EST
Diamondbacks vs. Marlins Location: LoanDepot Park, Miami
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets
Run Line: ATL: +1.5 (-185) | NYM: -1.5 (+150)
Moneyline: ATL: +115 | NYM: -140
Over/Under: 7 (-110)
Braves vs. Mets Starting Pitchers: Ian Anderson (ATL) vs. Tylor Megill (NYM)
Braves vs. Mets Game Time: 1:10 p.m. EST
Braves vs. Mets Location: Citi Field, New York
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Detroit Tigers
Run Line: PIT: +1.5 (-165) | DET: -1.5 (+135)
Moneyline: PIT: +125 | DET: -150
Over/Under: 7.5 (-110)
Pirates vs. Tigers Starting Pitchers: Dillon Peters (PIT) vs. Michael Pineda (DET)
Pirates vs. Tigers Game Time: 1:10 p.m. EST
Pirates vs. Tigers Location: Comerica Park, Detroit
San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland Guardians
Run Line: SD: -1.5 (+125) | CLE: +1.5 (-150)
Moneyline: SD: -135 | CLE: +115
Over/Under: 7 (-110)
Padres vs. Guardians Starting Pitchers: Mike Clevinger (SD) vs. Zach Plesac (CLE)
Padres vs. Guardians Game Time: 1:10 p.m. EST
Padres vs. Guardians Location: Progressive Field, Cleveland
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals
Run Line: STL: -1.5 (+120) | KC: +1.5 (-145)
Moneyline: STL: -145 | KC: +120
Over/Under: 7.5 (-110)
Cardinals vs. Royals Starting Pitchers: Adam Wainwright (STL) vs. Kris Bubic (KC)
Cardinals vs. Royals Game Time: 1:10 p.m. EST
Cardinals vs. Royals Location: Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, Mo.
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros
Run Line: SEA: +1.5 (-110) | HOU: -1.5 (-110)
Moneyline: SEA: +185 | HOU: -225
Over/Under: 8 (-110)
Mariners vs. Astros Starting Pitchers: Matt Brash (SEA) vs. Justin Verlander (HOU)
Mariners vs. Astros Game Time: 2:10 p.m. EST
Mariners vs. Astros Location: Minute Maid Park, Houston
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Oakland Athletics
Run Line: TB: -1.5 (+135) | OAK: +1.5 (-165)
Moneyline: TB: -130 | OAK: +110
Over/Under: 6.5 (-110)
Rays vs. Athletics Starting Pitchers: Corey Kluber (TB) vs. Frankie Montas (OAK)
Rays vs. Athletics Game Time: 3:37 p.m. EST
Rays vs. Athletics Location: Oakland Coliseum, Oakland, Calif.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Detroit Tigers
Run Line: PIT: +1.5 (-185) | DET: -1.5 (+150)
Moneyline: PIT: +115 | DET: -135
Over/Under: 7.5 (-110)
Pirates vs. Tigers Starting Pitchers: Jose Quintana (PIT) vs. Alex Faedo (DET)
Pirates vs. Tigers Game Time: 4:40 p.m. EST
Pirates vs. Tigers Location: Comerica Park, Detroit
San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland Guardians
Run Line: SD: -1.5 (+115) | CLE: +1.5 (-140)
Moneyline: SD: -150 | CLE: +125
Over/Under: 7 (-110)
Padres vs. Guardians Starting Pitchers: MacKenzie Gore (SD) vs. Cal Quantrill (CLE)
Padres vs. Guardians Game Time: 4:40 p.m. EST
Padres vs. Guardians Location: Progressive Field, Cleveland
Texas Rangers vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Run Line: TEX: +1.5 (-140) | PHI: -1.5 (+115)
Moneyline: TEX: +145 | PHI: -175
Over/Under: 8 (-110)
Rangers vs. Phillies Starting Pitchers: Martin Perez (TEX) vs. Zack Wheeler (PHI)
Rangers vs. Phillies Game Time: 6:45 p.m. EST
Rangers vs. Phillies Location: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia
Minnesota Twins vs. Baltimore Orioles
Run Line: MIN: -1.5 (+110) | BAL: +1.5 (-135)
Moneyline: MIN: -150 | BAL: +125
Over/Under: 7.5 (-110)
Twins vs. Orioles Starting Pitchers: Dylan Bundy (MIN) vs. Kyle Bradish (BAL)
Twins vs. Orioles Game Time: 7:05 p.m. EST
Twins vs. Orioles Location: Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Run Line: NYY: -1.5 (+115) | TOR: +1.5 (-140)
Moneyline: NYY: -145 | TOR: +120
Over/Under: 8.5 (-110)
Yankees vs. Blue Jays Starting Pitchers: Nestor Cortes (NYY) vs. Yusei Kikuchi (TOR)
Yankees vs. Blue Jays Game Time: 7:07 p.m. EST
Yankees vs. Blue Jays Location: Rogers Centre, Toronto
Los Angeles Angels vs. Boston Red Sox
Run Line: LAA: +1.5 (-165) | BOS: -1.5 (+140)
Moneyline: LAA: +120 | BOS: -145
Over/Under: 8.5 (-110)
Angels vs. Red Sox Starting Pitchers: Reid Detmers (LAA) vs. Garrett Whitlock (BOS)
Angels vs. Red Sox Game Time: 7:10 p.m. EST
Angels vs. Red Sox Location: Fenway Park, Boston
Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs
Run Line: CHW: -1.5 (+120) | CHC: +1.5 (-145)
Moneyline: CHW: -150 | CHC: +125
Over/Under: 7 (-110)
White Sox vs. Cubs Starting Pitchers: Lucas Giolito (CHW) vs. Kyle Hendricks (CHC)
White Sox vs. Cubs Game Time: 7:40 p.m. EST
White Sox vs. Cubs Location: Wrigley Field, Chicago
Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Run Line: CIN: +2.5 (-115) | MIL: -2.5 (-105)
Moneyline: CIN: +230 | MIL: -300
Over/Under: 7.5 (-110)
Reds vs. Brewers Starting Pitchers: Vladimir Gutierrez (CIN) vs. Freddy Peralta (MIL)
Reds vs. Brewers Game Time: 7:40 p.m. EST
Reds vs. Brewers Location: American Family Field, Milwaukee
Washington Nationals vs. Colorado Rockies
Run Line: WAS: +1.5 (-150) | COL: -1.5 (+125)
Moneyline: WAS: +125 | COL: -150
Over/Under: 10.5 (-110)
Nationals vs. Rockies Starting Pitchers: Patrick Corbin (WSH) vs. Austin Gomber (COL)
Nationals vs. Rockies Game Time: 8:40 p.m. EST
Nationals vs. Rockies Location: Coors Field, Denver
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Run Line: SF: Off | LAD: Off
Moneyline: SF: Off | LAD: Off
Over/Under: Off
Giants vs. Dodgers Starting Pitchers: Alex Wood (SF) vs. Undecided (LAD)
Giants vs. Dodgers Game Time: 10:10 p.m. EST
Giants vs. Dodgers Location: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles
Even with the Giants and Dodgers not on the board yet, there are still 16 games available with the two doubleheaders. Here are my best bets for May 4.
MLB Best Bet May 4: Pittsburgh Pirates-Detroit Tigers Game 1 Under 7.5 Runs (-110), 7:05 p.m. EST, available at BetMGM
Pittsburgh isn’t a team that most people think when they’re thinking unders, but the Pirates are one of those teams that comes in under the total more often than people think because they can’t hit all that well. Pittsburgh has some good offensive talents coming up the pipeline, but most of those players are still in the minor leagues. The current Pirates roster has only scored 82 runs on the season, an average of 3.63 runs per game.
The Tigers have been even worse on offense, scoring a mere 67 runs for the entire season. That’s worse than everyone except Cincinnati and Kansas City, neither of whom are known for their offensive prowess. Together, the Pirates and Tigers have hit just 23 balls out of the park, and they’re playing in pitcher-friendly Comerica Park. With this being the first game of a doubleheader, I think there’s a great chance the under cashes.
MLB Best Bet May 4: San Diego Padres-Cleveland Guardians Game 2 Under 7 Runs (-110), 4:40 p.m. EST, available at BetMGM
MacKenzie Gore appears the real deal, as he’s accumulated a 1.76 ERA in his three starts in 2022. That success should continue against Cleveland, as the Guardians have been very hit or miss when it comes to putting up runs. Cleveland has been feast or famine all season, as the Guardians have played 11 games where they’ve scored two runs or less and eight where they’ve plated six or more. Their success seems to be tied to their pitching opponent, and Gore has looked good so far this year.
With Cal Quantrill also holding opponents to a respectable 3.27 ERA in his appearances, I think this will be of the lower-scoring variety for Cleveland. I like the under here.
MLB Best Bet May 4: Chicago White Sox ML (-150) vs. Chicago Cubs, 7:40 p.m. EST, available at BetMGM
The South Siders are struggling to start this season, but I think they can get right against the Cubs and Kyle Hendricks. Hendricks is a pitch-to-contact type pitcher, which is not a good thing against a White Sox lineup that usually either takes a seat or finds some grass to place the ball. The White Sox’s biggest problem on offense right now stems from the fact that they’ve drawn just 49 walks for the season, the lowest total in the Majors.
They should be in good shape here, as Hendricks isn’t going to be trying to miss bats. He wants the ball in play…but the problem for him is that so do the White Sox. I think the Pale Hose take this one.
