If you’re betting on baseball right now, you’ve probably got one question on your mind: when will the Cincinnati Reds actually win another game?
One of the hardest things about gambling is when to jump on a hot trend and when to jump off. For instance, the Reds have already lost nine in a row and are 1-20 in their past 21 games. So, this horse has already run for several miles without collapsing.
With the also wretched Pittsburgh Pirates next on the schedule for eight of Cincinnati’s next 11 games, it stands to reason that the 3-22 Reds will stumble into a win or two over the next two weeks. Plus, it’s important to remember that the Reds have played a brutal slate to start the season. In fact, Cincinnati hasn’t played a team that’s worse than five games over .500 in any of its last 19 games.
On the other hand, this is a bad team that’s going nowhere, and it’s pretty easy to see Cincinnati completely giving up in a season where the Reds were barely pretending to try in the first place.
Having said that, I do think this team is better than its record and will eventually start to play better than its record suggests, but this team will still lose a heck of a lot more than it wins, so don’t rush out to bet heavily on the Reds.
instead, I’d place a small wager on the Pirates here to hedge whether or not the skid will continue, as I think there’s a good chance the Reds finally win one this weekend. If they do lose four to the Pirates, then it’s time to raise those bets in fading them.
With that in mind, here are the odds and lines for May 6.
MLB Odds, Schedule, and Probable Pitchers
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds
Run Line: PIT: -1.5 (+135) | CIN: +1.5 (-160)
Moneyline: PIT: -125 | CIN: +105
Over/Under: 8.5 (-110)
Pirates vs. Reds Starting Pitchers: J.T. Brubaker (PIT) vs. Connor Overton (CIN)
Pirates vs. Reds Game Time: 6:40 p.m. EST
Pirates vs. Reds Location: Great American Ball Park, Cincinnti
Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles
Run Line: KC: +1.5 (-190) | BAL: -1.5 (+155)
Moneyline: KC: +105 | BAL: -130
Over/Under: 8 (-110)
Royals vs. Orioles Starting Pitchers: Carlos Hernandez (KC) vs. Jordan Lyles (BAL)
Royals vs. Orioles Game Time: 7:05 p.m. EST
Royals vs. Orioles Location: Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Run Line: NYM: -1.5 (+125) | PHI: +1.5 (-150)
Moneyline: NYM: -145 | PHI: +125
Over/Under: 7 (-110)
Mets vs. Phillies Starting Pitchers: Max Scherzer (NYM) vs. Kyle Gibson (PHI)
Mets vs. Phillies Game Time: 7:05 p.m. EST
Mets vs. Phillies Location: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia
Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees
Run Line: TEX: +1.5 (-115) | NYY: -1.5 (-105)
Moneyline: TEX: +180 | NYY: -225
Over/Under: 7 (-110)
Rangers vs. Yankees Starting Pitchers: Glenn Otto (TEX) vs. Gerrit Cole (NYY)
Rangers vs. Yankees Game Time: 7:05 p.m. EST
Rangers vs. Yankees Location: Yankee Stadium, New York
Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox
Run Line: CHW: +1.5 (-135) | BOS: -1.5 (+110)
Moneyline: CHW: +145 | BOS: -175
Over/Under: 8.5 (-110)
Mariners vs. Astros Starting Pitchers: Vince Velasquez (CHW) vs. Nathan Eovaldi (BOS)
Mariners vs. Astros Game Time: 7:10 p.m. EST
Mariners vs. Astros Location: Fenway Park, Boston
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cleveland Guardians
Run Line: TOR: -1.5 (+125) | CLE: +1.5 (-155)
Moneyline: TOR: -140 | CLE: +115
Over/Under: 6.5 (-110)
Blue Jays vs. Guardians Starting Pitchers: Kevin Gausman (TOR) vs. Shane Bieber (CLE)
Blue Jays vs. Guardians Game Time: 7:10 p.m. EST
Blue Jays vs. Guardians Location: Progressive Field, Cleveland
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves
Run Line: MIL: Off | ATL: Off
Moneyline: MIL: Off | ATL: Off
Over/Under: Off
Brewers vs. Braves Starting Pitchers: Eric Lauer (MIL) vs. Undecided (ATL)
Brewers vs. Braves Game Time: 7:20 p.m. EST
Brewers vs. Braves Location: Truist Park, Atlanta
Oakland Athletics vs. Minnesota Twins
Run Line: OAK: +1.5 (-135) | MIN: -1.5 (+110)
Moneyline: OAK: +155 | MIN: -175
Over/Under: 7.5 (-110)
Athletics vs. Twins Starting Pitchers: Cole Irvin (OAK) vs. Undecided (MIN)
Athletics vs. Twins Game Time: 8:10 p.m. EST
Athletics vs. Twins Location: Target Field, Minneapolis
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros
Run Line: DET: +1.5 (-120) | HOU: -1.5 (+100)
Moneyline: DET: +180 | HOU: -210
Over/Under: 8 (-110)
Tigers vs. Astros Starting Pitchers: Beau Brieske (DET) vs. Luis Garcia (HOU)
Tigers vs. Astros Game Time: 8:10 p.m. EST
Tigers vs. Astros Location: Minute Maid Park, Houston
Washington Nationals vs. Los Angeles Angels
Run Line: WSH: Off | LAA: Off
Moneyline: WSH: Off | LAA: Off
Over/Under: Off
Nationals vs. Angels Starting Pitchers: Undecided (WSH) vs. Undecided (LAA)
Nationals vs. Angels Game Time: 9:38 p.m. EST
Nationals vs. Angels Location: Angel Stadium, Anaheim, Calif.
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Run Line: COL: +1.5 (-160) | ARI: -1.5 (+135)
Moneyline: COL: +125 | ARI: -150
Over/Under: 8.5 (-110)
Rockies vs. Diamondbacks Starting Pitchers: Undecided (COL) vs. Merrill Kelly (ARI)
Rockies vs. Diamondbacks Game Time: 9:40 p.m. EST
Rockies vs. Diamondbacks Location: Chase Field, Phoenix
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Seattle Mariners
Run Line: TB: +1.5 (-200) | SEA: -1.5 (+170)
Moneyline: TB: +110 | SEA: -130
Over/Under: 7 (-110)
Rays vs. Mariners Starting Pitchers: Shane McClanahan (TB) vs. Logan Gilbert (SEA)
Rays vs. Mariners Game Time: 9:40 p.m. EST
Rays vs. Mariners Location: T-Mobile Park, Seattle
Miami Marlins vs. San Diego Padres
Run Line: MIA: +1.5 (-200) | SD: -1.5 (+170)
Moneyline: MIA: +110 | SD: -130
Over/Under: 6.5 (-110)
Marlins vs. Padres Starting Pitchers: Sandy Alcantara (MIA) vs. Yu Darvish (SD)
Marlins vs. Padres Game Time: 9:40 p.m. EST
Marlins vs. Padres Location: Petco Park, San Diego
St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Francisco Giants
Run Line: STL: +1.5 (-200) | SF: -1.5 (+165)
Moneyline: STL: +105 | SF: -125
Over/Under: 7 (-110)
Cardinals vs. Giants Starting Pitchers: Jordan Hicks (STL) vs. Undecided (SF)
Cardinals vs. Giants Game Time: 10:15 p.m. EST
Cardinals vs. Giants Location: Oracle Park, San Francisco
Top MLB Predictions for May 6
Even with the Giants and Dodgers not on the board yet, there are still 16 games available with the two doubleheaders. Here are my best bets for May 4.
Strangely, there are several teams choosing not to name a starting pitcher at this point, which has left more than a few games off the board. Plus, the Dodgers and Cubs have already been rained out. But there are still several good options to choose from; here are my top MLB picks for May 6.
MLB Best Bet May 6: Pittsburgh Pirates-Cincinnati Reds Under 8.5 Runs (-110), 6:40 p.m. EST, available at BetMGM
J.T. Brubaker has been at least decent on the mound, and even with the Reds’ recent offensive surge, they still aren’t scoring a lot. Together, these teams have combined for 168 runs in 49 games, an average of less than 3.5 runs per game per team.
Both of these teams rank in the bottom five in slugging percentage, so as long as Brubaker and Reds starter Connor Overton don’t lose command of the strike zone, there shouldn’t be a ton of offense to speak of in this matchup. At least one team has been held to three runs or less in six of Pittsburgh’s past seven games, so I think there’s a good chance this sneaks under the total.
MLB Best Bet May 6: Cleveland Guardians First 5 Innings ML (+110) vs. Toronto Blue Jays, 7:10 p.m. EST, available at BetMGM
If you can get Shane Bieber in the first five for plus money, you have to go for it, even if it’s against a lineup as powerful as the Blue Jays. Toronto’s lineup actually hasn’t produced as well as people expected unless the ball leaves the park altogether, as the Jays rank just 18th in runs scored with 102.
Where Toronto’s reputation comes from is the fact that the Jays have whacked 34 home runs on the season, putting them fourth in the Majors. But unlike a lot of guts who can throw hard but little else, Bieber genuinely knows how to pitch. Toronto’s swing for the fences approach might help it win a few games, but it’s not going to do the job against a top pitcher like Bieber at home.
MLB Best Bet May 6: Miami Marlins-San Diego Padres Under 6.5 Runs (-110), 9:40 p.m. EST, available at BetMGM
This is an incredibly low total, but I think it makes a lot of sense because both teams have such quality pitchers on the mound in a pitcher-friendly park. Sandy Alcantara has been the most reliable starter the Marlins have, and if you take away one bad outing against the Giants, Yu Darvish has been lights-out this season.
The Fish have scored four runs or fewer in five of their past six games and routinely get by with only needing three runs to bring home a win. This is a team that leans hard on its pitchers, and if Darvish throws to his usual standards, this might be a 3-2 ballgame.
