In this article, we’ll provide you with our NBA Thursday night betting picks for the Miami Heat at Atlanta Hawks & Denver Nuggets at New Orleans Pelicans games. So let’s dive right in to study the odds, betting lines, teams, and players to give you our recommended betting picks to beat the New Jersey sportsbooks.
Miami Heat (-6) at Atlanta Hawks – O/U: 216.5
Thursday, October 31, 2019 – 7:05 p.m. EST
Betting Pick: Hawks +6
For the second time in three days, the Miami Heat and Atlanta Hawks will square off. The Heat won on Tuesday by the score of 112-97. However, it’s very difficult for a team with both parts of a home-and-home series. That’s why our top betting pick is for the Hawks to cover the six-point spread. Let’s dive into the numbers some more and see why we’re going that route.
NBA Betting Lines Analysis: Heat at Hawks
There is absolutely no faith in the Hawks tonight. 81 percent of public bets and 92 percent of all money wagered is on the Heat. It makes plenty of sense, considering Atlanta will be without its best player, but the fact that these two teams just played each other doesn’t matter to the people – and it certainly should.
Heat Betting Form
The Heat are off to a solid 3-1 start this season, getting two of those wins without Jimmy Butler. After getting a superstar of this caliber in the offseason, many felt Miami would be a better team – and they’re showing that already.
Butler joins a Heat team that is getting solid guard-play from rookies Kendrick Nunn and Tyler Herro, and then Goran Dragic now playing on the second unit. Bam Adebayo is playing solid ball down low and can truly elevate his profile in the NBA now that he doesn’t have to split time with Hassan Whiteside.
While all of this is great news for the Heat, it’s incredibly difficult to win both games of a home-and-home series. Since the Hawks are actually getting points in this spot, we’ll shy away from the Heat in this one.
Hawks Betting Form
The Hawks will be without Trae Young after he rolled his ankle in Tuesday’s game. Early reports have him missing a couple of games but he should return next week. This injury puts the Hawks in a dubious spot with having many capable point guards on the roster. Evan Turner would be the most logical choice but he missed Tuesday’s game with a sore Achilles.
It appears like Cam Reddish, De’Andre Hunter and Tyrone Wallace will do most of the ball-handling duties. This really puts the Hawks in a bad spot going forward, but they can probably make do for this game. After all, teams that won the first game of a home-and-home series lost the back-end at an overwhelming rate last season. There really is something to be said about getting revenge in these situations.
Betting Pick: Hawks (+6)
We mentioned it numerous times, but sweeping home-and-home series in the NBA doesn’t happen often. In fact, last year it happened about 15-20 percent of the time in those situations. Don’t underestimate the power of a trend like that, as it tends to carry a lot of weight. Not to mention, we’re getting plenty of points to cover the spread.
Denver Nuggets (-2.5) at New Orleans Pelicans – O/U: 223
Thursday, October 31, 2019 – 9:30 p.m. EST
Betting Pick: Nuggets -2.5
The New Orleans Pelicans will look to get their first win of the season when they host the Denver Nuggets. Winning has not been a problem for the Nuggets, taking three of their first four games. Our top betting pick is for Denver to cover the 2.5-point spread. Let’s dive into the numbers to see our thinking on this game.
NBA Betting Lines: Nuggets at Pelicans
The line could certainly alter if certain members of the Pelicans team are healthy to play. At the moment, it seems like they will play and that’s why we’re seeing it where it is. It does seem a little too easy for the Nuggets to cover the spread, but they have been playing in a lot of close games. Perhaps, Vegas believes this will be another one.
Nuggets Betting Form
While the Pelicans run a fast tempo, the Nuggets actually have the slowest pace this season. It’s surprising that they even had the fourth-slowest pace last season. Nonetheless, Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray lead a dynamic 1-2 combo that has plenty of talent alongside on the roster. These two are leading the team in points per game while Will Barton, Gary Harris and Paul Millsap aren’t all too far behind.
This team did big things last season and came one game from reaching the Western Conference Finals. Getting that experience will only help this team going forward. Look for the Nuggets to come out on top in a close game over a team with less talent.
Pelicans Betting Form
The Pelicans have an exciting brand of basketball to watch but that hasn’t translated into a win yet. While the offense has the third-highest pace in the NBA, it’s the defense that is absolutely killing them. New Orleans has allowed 128.3 points per game this season, which is worst in the league. In addition, the defense is allowing the second-most shots per game (98.5).
Brandon Ingram is performing at an All-Star level with 27.3 points and 9.5 rebounds per game this season. He hasn’t been getting a ton of help from the other players, but this is a team with a lot of new pieces. Clearly, Ingram is taking on a much larger role than he ever had in LA and it suits him well.
Things won’t be any easier if Jrue Holiday and Derrick Favors aren’t able to play once again. Pelicans head coach Alvin Gentry said both players are listed as game-time decisions.
Betting Pick: Nuggets (-2.5)
The line seems to indicate that Holiday and Favors will be available for this game. If they’re hobbled or don’t actually play, then we’re getting even more fantastic value at this -2.5 number. The Nuggets are a much better team and have performed well in close games this season.
