There’s only one game on tonight’s NBA schedule, featuring the Phoenix Suns at Los Angeles Clippers (9 p.m. EST on ESPN) in Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals. Heading into tonight, the Suns hold a 2-0 lead in the series after the miracle finish on Tuesday night in the desert.
Last night, I took a beating on the Bucks, but I would follow that same trail of money over and over. Sometimes things work out, and sometimes they don’t. Whatever the case is, I’m now at 24-26-1 ATS after a 57% regular season. Here is another free NBA betting pick to take us into the weekend on a high note.
Phoenix Suns (-1.5) at Los Angeles Clippers – Total: 221
Looking at the betting landscape, 60% of the bets placed are on the Suns while the money wagered is sitting right around 50-50. The total, however, is where things are a little more intriguing. About 57% of bets placed went to the over while 60% went to the under, and there’s more. Looking the implied team total for both sides, each team’s number increased (PHX: +1.5, LAC: +1.0). Subsequently, the game total rose from 218.5 points to 221.
With Chris Paul back for Phoenix, I don’t think there are a ton of cases you can make to say it’s a bad thing. After all, CP3 is the reason the Suns were a No. 2 seed in the West this season. Devin Booker took a gruesome shot when his face collided with Patrick Beverley. Luckily, both guys were fine, but that’s another matchup to watch. It’ll be interesting to see what happens with Cameron Payne having CP3 back. Payne took a team-high 24 shots in Game 2, but I’d expect that number to dip with the team at full strength.
On one hand, it is appealing to roll with the Clippers down 0-2 in the series fighting for their season. However, we just saw the Suns act all savage and sweep the Nuggets in that second-round series before this one.
The Clippers will still be without Kawhi Leonard, and that aspect has certainly muddled their chances in this series. Paul George has been asked to do more, and sometimes that’s not a great thing in the playoffs. His two missed free throws in the closing seconds opened the door for the Suns to come back and eventually win the game.
At the end of the day, I think the Suns have that killer instinct you need for this type of game. And seeing the movement in lines with money, I’ll be taking the over.
Betting Pick: Suns (-1.5) / Over 221 points
