Predicting player props for the Villanova Wildcats in the Final Four might be a bit tougher to nail than those for the Kansas Jayhawks, the Duke Blue Devils or the North Carolina Tar Heels.
The Wildcats are going to look very different from how they did all season as they’ll be without starting guard Justin Moore for the first time on Saturday, after the junior tore his Achilles in Villanova’s Elite Eight win over Houston. That means that Nova head coach Jay Wright will have to make adjustments to his rotation heading into one of the most important games of the season, something that could affect scoring, rebounding and assist outcomes for his players.
However, some things are likely to stay similar to the way the Wildcats have played leading up to their Final Four contest with Kansas. With that in mind, here are my three best bets for Villanova Wildcats player props vs. Kansas in the Final Four on Saturday.
Villanova Wildcats Player Props vs. Kansas in NCAA Tournament March Madness Final Four
Jermaine Samuels Prop Bet: Over 7.5 Rebounds (-135)
Jermaine Samuels led the Wildcats in rebounding this season, averaging 6.5 per game, and he has even better during the NCAA Tournament, notching 8.5 rebounds per game in the Wildcats’ four March Madness wins. In fact, Samuels has topped 7.5 rebounds in all but one of Villanova’s eight postseason games, going back to the Big East tournament.
Despite Kansas’ size advantage on the interior, someone on Villanova will have to hit the boards. I’ll rely on the Wildcats’ leading rebounder to do so and hit the over on this prop.
Jermaine Samuels Best Bet: Over 7.5 Rebounds (-135), available on PointsBet
Collin Gillespie Prop Bet: Over 3.5 Assists (-165)
With Moore on the shelf, someone is going to have to step up to create shots for Villanova’s offense — and that job is likely to fall on Collin Gillespie’s shoulders. Gillespie is already the Villanova assist leader at 3.3 assists per game, but without Moore on the floor, the Wildcats’ leading scorer will be further leaned on in the national semifinal.
This over/under number is low given that Gillespie didn’t contribute many assists (three total) in the Wildcats’ past two games. But recency bias works in over bettors’ favor in this case. Prior to the past two games against Houston and Michigan, Gillespie had topped this number in seven of the Wildcats’ previous eight games. The -165 juice isn’t exactly ideal, but any win is a good one, even if you have to pay a bit of a price for it.
Collin Gillespie Best Bet: Over 3.5 Assists (-165), available on PointsBet
Collin Gillespie Prop Bet: Over 14.5 Points (-125)
Villanova leads the nation in free throw percentage (83.0 percent), and Gillespie has a lot to do with that. He’s made 105-of-116 this season, good for 90 percent clip, and if the Wildcats get a lead, Gillespie is likely to be the one who gets the ball down the stretch. He’s also the Wildcats’ leader in 3-pointers made, and given Kansas’ strong interior offense, Villanova is going to have to hit from deep in order to keep up with the Jayhawks.
Gillespie had an off-game against Houston in the South Region final, scoring just six points, but the Cougars’ defense did that to other team’s top scorers all season long. Look for Gillespie to bounce back in this one and top his season average of 15-plus points.
Collin Gillespie Best Bet: Over 14.5 Points (-125), available on PointsBet
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