| West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Kansas State Wildcats | |
| When | 7 pm, Monday 14 February |
| Where | Bramlage Coliseum, Manhattan, Kansas |
| Spread | WVU +4/KSU -4 |
| Total | Over 134.5/Under 134.5 |
| West Virginia Mountaineers Form | (14-10 SU, 10-14 ATS) |
| Kansas State Wildcats Form | (13-11 SU, 12-10-2 ATS) |
Background
Has West Virginia decided that it’s done at this point? The Mountaineers have played well at home, but when they’ve left Morgantown, they’ve been a royal mess, losing all of their Big 12 games away from WVU Coliseum.
Making matters worse, except for a game at Baylor on 31 January, the Mountaineers haven’t even been competitive on the road in the league, losing their other four league games by an average of 21.75 points.
That sounds like exactly what Kansas State needs as it tries to make a late push toward postseason play. The Wildcats have an uphill climb over the season’s final month, but they have won three of their past four games and have a home win over nationally-ranked Texas Tech on their resume.
Kansas State probably needs to win the Big 12 tournament to make the field, but the Wildcats can get themselves in a much better position to do that with their play over the season’s final month.
If Kansas State can finish sixth or better, it will only need to win three games in three days in March, rather than four games in four days. That makes every game crucial, especially one at home against a fellow struggler.
Betting the Total
The last time these teams played, Kansas State shot just 37 percent but still found its way to 68 points. The numbers have Kansas State hitting a total of 64.5 in this game, but West Virginia has allowed every Big 12 team it’s visited to score at least 74 points against them when it has played on the road.
As long as the Wildcats can shoot even a half-decent percentage from the floor, they should be able to put up a pretty good number.
The overall total seems much riskier, as West Virginia has sometimes shown up on offense and sometimes completely failed to get anything going. Kansas State ranks fourth in the nation at defending the 3-pointer, so it seems like this matchup is more likely to see the Mountaineers struggle to score.
If Kansas State is scoring, that could go either way on the total, so the Wildcats’ team total seems the better play.
Backing the Spread
With West Virginia showing no inclination of playing well on the road, this looks like the kind of game that Kansas State can cover.
The Wildcats have gone 5-3-1 ATS in their past nine games, and two of those were against a powerful Baylor squad that is just a bad matchup for Kansas State. West Virginia is just 3-8 ATS on the road in the Big 12 and has only covered at Baylor in its five road games in the league.
With the Mountaineers putting up 58 against Oklahoma State and 53 against Texas Tech, this looks like another low-scoring loss and a blowout defeat for West Virginia at the hands of K-State.
