On Friday we have two fascinating matchups with the Michigan State Spartans vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons and USC Trojans vs. Iowa Hawkeyes. In this article, we’ll provide you with our top NCAAF Computer Picks for the bowl games on Friday, December 27th. Our NCAAF Computer Picks are chosen using an algorithm that analyzes historical sports data across college football to you the bets that offer the best value bets to beat the NJ Sportsbooks. Now let’s take a look at our top NCAAF Computer Picks.
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NCAAF Friday, Dec. 27 Bowl Game Computer Picks
New Era Pinstripe Bowl – Yankee Stadium – Bronx, NY
Michigan State Spartans (-3.5/ML: -17) at Wake Forest Demon Deacons – Total: 50
Friday, Dec. 27, 2019 – 3:20 p.m. EST
New Era Pinstripe Bowl Computer Pick: Michigan State to cover the spread
The Wake Forest Demon Deacons will look to make a statement
for their program against a traditional power in the Michigan State Spartans. While
most recreational fans will see the two-game difference in team records, there
is one team with more pedigree. Our betting pick is for Michigan State to cover
the 3.5-point spread. Let’s dive into some facts to show our hand with the
slight favorite.
New Era Pinstripe Bowl Betting Line: Michigan State vs. Wake Forest
The 3.5-point spread has remained solid since the bowl games
were announced. So far, we’re seeing a little more than half of the public bets
going in favor of Wake Forest. We’re going to trust
the more experienced team in Michigan State. It’s still a bit shocking that
Sparty isn’t getting more love from the public in this matchup. That’s fine,
there’s no need to follow the crowd on this one.
Michigan State Betting Form
Michigan State certainly did not live up expectations at 6-6
this season, only covering the spread in three of those games. The Spartans did,
however, suffer four of their losses to Top-15 teams (Ohio State, Wisconsin,
Penn State and Michigan) throughout the season. Nonetheless, this a well-coached
team that has won five of their last seven bowl games. Also, Michigan State is 7-2-1
ATS in neutral-field games.
Sparty’s main appeal coming into the season was their defensive
unit, with the numerous starters returning. On defense, they allowed the 18th
fewest total yards and 14th fewest 109.5 rushing yards. In each of its
last five losses, Michigan State allowed 28 or more points in each of those
games. However, it’s important to remember that most of those games were
against the Top-15 opponents we spoke of earlier.
Wake Forest Betting Form
Wake Forest comes into the Pinstripe Bowl losing three of
the last four contests, with each of the blemishes coming on the road. The last
time this team faced any adversity on the road, they lost by 19 points to Virginia
Tech and 49 points to Clemson.
The Demon Deacons have been dealing with some injuries heading
down the homestretch of the season. QB Jamie Newman has been dinged up more
than a couple of times, including the last time his team played. If he suffers
any further injuries, Sam Hartman will need to come in under center – and no
one from Wake Forest wants that. The loss of WR Sage Surrat is certainly a huge
loss for the Demon Deacons’ offense.
New Era Pinstripe Bowl Computer Pick: Michigan State to cover the spread
Michigan State has certainly faced stiffer competition
throughout the entire season, and we know much more about their toughness.
Despite the offense not registering much of a blip on the radar, we believe
their defense is the unit that’ll take over in this game. Look for Sparty’s
defense to get busy, create some turnovers and put their average offense in favorable
spots.
San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl – SDCCU Stadium – San Diego, CA
#22 USC Trojans vs. #16 Iowa Hawkeyes (-2/ML: -130) – Total: 51.5
Friday, Dec. 27, 2019 – 8:00 p.m. EST
San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl Computer Pick: Iowa to win outright
This will certainly be a battle of opposites when the USC Trojans
face the Iowa Hawkeyes. Both teams are playing at the top of their games, each
winning five of the last six games. Only one team can win, and Iowa winning
outright is our betting pick. Let’s look at some facts and see why we’re going
on the moneyline.
San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl Betting Line: USC vs. Iowa
We haven’t seen this line move too much. In fact, it only
moved a half-point with Iowa still the favorite. Nonetheless, with the small
spread, we believe like it’s more reasonable to take Iowa on the moneyline. For
one, the offense isn’t necessarily the most dynamic one in college football. Also,
it’s not like we need to risk a ton of money in order to win this bet.
USC Betting Form
USC started out the season 3-3 but finished with five wins
over the last six games. After alternating covers/non-covers over those first
six games, they did cover four of the last six. It’s worth noting that each of
the last five USC games has gone over the total.
In order for the Trojans to win this game, they’ll need to
rely on their offense. In particular, it has been the passing game, which ranks
sixth in the nation with 335.9 yards per game. That’ll be a lot easier said
than done for QB Kedon Slovis & Co. against one of the stingiest defenses
in all of college football.
Iowa Betting Form
After starting the season with four wins (three of them
being very weak opponents), Iowa lost two low-scoring battles against Michigan
and Penn State. They did, however, finish the season with five wins over the
last six games and their three losses this season were by a combined 14 points.
It’s worth noting that Iowa games have gone 3-8-1 against the total going over
this season.
Iowa’s defense has allowed the fourth-fewest points per game
(13.2), 11th fewest passing yards per game (184.2) and 12th
fewest total yards per game (304.3). Look for the Hawkeyes to play a physical
brand of football and try to kill the clock by running the football.
San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl Computer Pick: Iowa to win outright
USC hasn’t covered the spread in each of its last seven matchups
against Big Ten teams, and we’re thinking it could be eight straight. We know
we’re taking the moneyline, but isn’t it better to be safer than sorry? Bettors
only need to wager an extra $15-20 in this spot, and it could very well be
worth it at the end of the day.
