In this article, we’ll give you our top NFL picks for Week 11 of the season. These matchups include the Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens, New England Patriots at Philadelphia Eagles & Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Rams. We study the odds, betting lines, teams, and players to give you our recommended betting picks to beat the New Jersey sportsbooks.
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Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens (-4.5) – O/U: 52
Sunday, November 17, 2019 – 1:00 p.m. EST
NFL Week 11 Pick: Texans (+4.5)
We’ve got a huge AFC matchup as the 6-3 Houston Texans hit the road to face the 7-2 Baltimore Ravens. While the Ravens are sitting on top of the world right now, they better be ready for this one. Our top betting pick is for the Texans to cover the 4.5-point spread. Let’s dive into some numbers to see why we’re rolling with the underdogs.
NFL Week 11 Betting Lines Analysis: Texans at Ravens
This 4.5-point spread is interesting, to say the least. With the Ravens playing at home, you’d think they’d be laying more points to the Texans – and that’s not the case. Nonetheless, the Ravens are getting 60% of public bets and all money wagered to cover the spread. We feel like this spread is too good to be true for the Ravens, so that’s why we’re backing the Texans.
Texans Form
The Texans are coming off their bye week and that’s usually been a sign of good things to come. After all, Houston is 3-1 under head coach Bill O’Brien after the bye. Not to mention, this is a team that has won four of the last five games.
QB Deshaun Watson has played well recently and the offensive line is a big reason why. After getting sacked 18 times in the first four games, he’s only gone down seven times over the last five. Baltimore’s pass defense has been surprisingly below-average this season, allowing 252.9 yards per game. Watson can certainly take advantage of this, especially with a detailed gameplan coming out of the bye.
Perhaps, the biggest contribution will need to come from the Texans’ defense, which leads the NFL with 13 forced fumbles. Houston has been slightly above-average against the run, allowing 4.1 yards per carry. Obviously, stopping the run will need to be a key point of emphasis for them in this one.
Ravens Form
The Ravens are coming off an easy win against a Bengals team that hasn’t done anything right this season. Prior to that, they were able to pull off the upset against a Patriots team that has been feasting on Bengals-like teams for most of the year. It goes without saying, this will be much tougher sledding against a team coming off their bye week.
QB Lamar Jackson has been nothing short of amazing this season and actually has the second-best odds to win the NFL’s MVP award. When looking at his numbers, it’s insane to know that Jackson’s 702 rushing yards are collectively more than four NFL teams and only two fewer than Texans RB Carlos Hyde. It’ll be interesting to see how the Ravens handle a Texans defense that is allowing the third fewest yards per game (84.1) on the ground this season.
NFL Week 11 Pick: Texans (+4.5)
All in all, we feel like this is going to be a very tight game and 4.5 points is just too much to cover. When looking at the Ravens, it’s easy to see Jackson doing his thing and feel like this team is invincible – they are not. Look for the Texans to move the ball with great success and possibly even get the outright win. However, we’ll play it safe and take the points.
New England Patriots (-3.5) at Philadelphia Eagles – O/U: 45
Sunday, November 17, 2019 – 4:25 p.m. EST
NFL Week 11 Pick: Eagles (+3.5… buy to +4)
It’s a rematch of Super Bowl LII when the 8-1 New England Patriots travel to face the 5-4 Philadelphia Eagles. This is a very interesting scenario as both teams are coming off their bye week. Our top betting pick is for the Eagles to cover the spread, but we’d like our readers to buy a half-point and make it +4. Let’s dig into the numbers to get a better look at our thoughts on this game.
NFL Week 11 Betting Lines: Patriots at Eagles
It’s not a big surprise to see the majority (about 78%) of public bets and all money wagered in favor of the Patriots. After all, they did lose their last game and are coming off the bye week. However, we’re not entirely sure who this year’s Patriots team is just yet. While they have looked great in most of their games, they really haven’t played a ton of stiff competition.
Patriots Form
As we just mentioned above, the Patriots have done plenty of damage against basement-dwelling teams. However, when they faced a tough Ravens team, they got smacked in the mouth. For all of the genius we place on head coach Bill Belichick, his teams are only 12-8 after the bye week.
A couple of weeks ago, we would’ve looked at QB Tom Brady and been convinced he would carve up this Eagles secondary. Now that two of their key players are back, this matchup gets a little more interesting to dissect. And look, it’s not like the Patriots receivers are this unbelievably talented group that we’ve seen in the past. The Ravens laid the blueprint out on how to beat this team, with relentless pressure on Brady and stopping the run – these are two things the Eagles can certainly capitalize on.
Eagles Form
There won’t be any Nick Foles magic this time around, but QB Carson Wentz is certainly capable of maneuvering well enough against this Patriots defense. In their only loss this season, the Patriots were absolutely gutted by the Ravens for 210 yards on the ground. It’s really not something we should turn our cheek at, but the Patriots have now allowed at least 135 rushing yards in four of the last six games. While the Eagles don’t necessarily have a bell-cow RB, they’ll get it done with a committee approach and that could be even more detrimental.
Defense, defense, defense – that’s the name of the game for Philly on Sunday. With Jalen Mills and Ronald Darby back, this once-struggling secondary is ready to make a huge difference. The Eagles are already allowing the fourth fewest rushing yards per game (87.3) and that’ll make it easy to hone in on the passing game and get that much-needed pressure on Brady.
NFL Week 11 Pick: Eagles (+3.5… buy to +4)
Buying the half-point is a mere safety precaution. After all, we’re betting against the Patriots and that’s always something you have to keep in mind. Nonetheless, we’re pretty damn high on the Eagles this week and it wouldn’t totally shock us if they come away with the outright win. Just like the first game on our docket, though, let’s play it safe and take the points.
Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Rams (-6.5) – O/U: 41
Sunday, November 17, 2019 – 8:20 p.m. EST
NFL Week 11 Pick: Under 41
The Week 11 Sunday slate gets wrapped up with a couple of NFC teams trying to stay relevant in the playoff picture. Before there were plenty of expectations for the 4-5 Chicago Bears and 5-4 Los Angeles Rams. The total is the first thing that stuck out to us, and that’s why our top betting pick is for the total to go under 41 points. Let’s dive into these numbers to see why we’re bullish on the offenses in this matchup.
NFL Week 11 Betting Lines: Bears at Rams
It’s quite intriguing to see the Bears getting almost two-thirds of the public bets in this one. After all, it’s not like they’ve been playing well over the last week. Although, the same could be said about the Rams. As for the total, we’ve got plenty of agreement on our selection. Two-thirds of public bets and an overwhelming 88% of all money wagered is going toward the under. Gotta love it!
Bears Form
Not to be a downer or anything, but QB Mitch Trubisky will probably be looking for another job next season. Despite throwing three touchdowns last week against an atrocious Lions pass defense, he’s only got an 8 TD-3 INT ratio this season. While the Rams have undergone numerous changes on both sides of the ball, the defense is still anchored by DT Aaron Donald that can make life incredibly difficult for Trubisky.
As for the Bears defense, we know exactly what we’re getting here. This is one of the most vicious units in all of football. Last week against the Steelers, the Rams offense looked a Pop Warner club coming out of the bye week and it doesn’t look like anything is getting better.
Rams Form
QB Jared Goff had a brutal performance last week at Pittsburgh coming off the bye and that’s kind of an indication of where this offense is heading. Coming into the season, RB Todd Gurley was expected to have a setback year and those concerns have been validated with no 100-yard performances on the ground. WR Brandin Cooks will be out once again and that puts even more stress on an offense that has been stuck in neutral.
The Rams offensive line has numerous players playing out of position right now, and that’s probably a good indicator of why the offense is struggling. Even before the loss to the Steelers, this offensive line was not performing up to its capabilities and this just adds onto the pain. Look for LB Khalil Mack to have a big night on the stat sheet.
As we mentioned, this defense is anchored by one of the best players in football. Donald will always be a pest for opposing offensive lines and the addition of CB Jalen Ramsey makes this a well-rounded unit. Shutting down the Bears offense is simple – stop the run and make Trubisky beat you. And he can’t do that.
NFL Week 11 Pick: Under 41
Even though we have two offensive-minded coaches, but of these QBs are playing well below expectations at the moment. Not to mention, we’ve got two solid defenses and that’ll ultimately be the catalyst to winning this bet. Look for the two offenses to struggle once again and give us a Sunday night game that’ll likely make you want to hit the sheets early.
