In this article, we’ll give you our top NFL picks for Week 12 of the season. These matchups include the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons, Dallas Cowboys at New England Patriots and Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers. We study the odds, betting lines, teams, and players to give you our recommended betting picks to beat the New Jersey sportsbooks.
You might also like
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) – O/U: 51
Sunday, November 24, 2019 – 1:00 p.m. EST
NFL Week 12 Pick: Falcons (-3.5)
Two 3-7 NFC South teams meet as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers travel to face the Atlanta Falcons. The Dirty Birds have looked great over the last two games while the Bucs are going back to their old ways. Our top betting pick is for the Falcons to cover the four-point spread. Let’s dive into the numbers to see why we’re heading in this direction.
NFL Week 12 Betting Lines Analysis: Buccaneers at Falcons
Most bettors agree with us on the Falcons. We’re seeing 70% of public bets and 62% of all money wagered heading that route. It makes sense, considering the Falcons have won each of their last two games on the road against division opponents. Now that they’re heading back home to face a lesser opponent, it just seems like the right way to go.
Buccaneers Form
QB Jameis Winston leads the NFL with 18 interceptions, and that’s actually four more than Philip Rivers. This is nothing new with Winston, as he’s thrown 10+ in all five of his professional seasons. It is worth noting, though, that he has an 18 TD-4 INT ratio against the Falcons over the last five meetings.
However, the Bucs defense is what will let them down in this one. They have now allowed 30+ points in seven of their 10 games. Some of those points have even come at the expense of Winston putting the defense in bad positions, even throwing some pick-6s in the process.
Falcons Form
The Falcons have won each of their last four meetings against the Bucs, and we like them to do so once again. This is a team that has played incredibly well each of the last two weeks, dominating division opponents in spectacular fashion. We can attribute the dominance to the defense, which has been run by former Bucs head coach Raheem Morris.
QB Matt Ryan wasn’t needed much in each of these last two games because of the defensive showing. However, this is a matchup that he should flourish in. The Bucs defense can’t seem to get out of their own way, and the cornerbacks on the roster now barely have any type of NFL experience. Look for WRs Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley to each have huge days.
NFL Week 12 Pick: Falcons (-3.5)
The Falcons are playing great football right now, while the Bucs are trending in the opposite direction. We feel like there are plenty of mismatches of both sides of the ball. That’ll lead to plenty of advantageous spots and have the Falcons in lots of high-probability scoring areas.
Dallas Cowboys at New England Patriots (-6) – O/U: 46
Sunday, November 24, 2019 – 4:25 p.m. EST
NFL Week 12 Pick: Patriots (-6)
Two of America’s most hated teams will do battle on Sunday, as the Dallas Cowboys travel to Foxborough for a meeting with the New England Patriots. Both teams have made a living feasting off the weaker teams in the NFL, but now it’s crunch time. Our top betting pick is for the Patriots to cover the 6.5-point spread. Let’s look at some numbers that have us in favor of the home team.
NFL Week 12 Betting Lines: Cowboys at Patriots
The 6.5-point spread on this game is quite telling, in that the Patriots are expected to do some damage. About two-thirds of public bets and all money wagered is heading in that direction. The masses agree that the Patriots are better suited for this spot at home. No argument here!
Cowboys Form
As we mentioned, the Cowboys have feasted on weaker teams in the NFL. Their four losses have come against the Saints, Packers, Jets, and Vikings – three of which are going to be playoff teams.
In order for the Cowboys to win this game, running the football needs to be atop the list. RB Ezekiel Elliott could likely be without star RT La’el Collins and that would make things a lot more difficult. In addition, QB Dak Prescott will have to deal with his best WR Amari Cooper being a little dinged up.
We’ve seen this Patriots defense do some amazing things this season, albeit against lesser competition. When they did face Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, things did not go so well. It would behoove the Cowboys to take some of those similar approaches. After all, they do have a similar type of personnel in order to do so.
Patriots Form
QB Tom Brady and the Patriots offense have not been at their best this season. However, this is the perfect opportunity to get RB Sony Michel rolling once again. When the Patriots were humming along last season, Michel was right at the forefront pounding the rock. Head coach Bill Belichick might have been hiding him in the garage all season for a spot like this season. We believe Michel will be unleashed in this one. OT Isaiah Wynn should be back for this one, and that would be a huge help.
On defense, no one has done better than New England this season. Prescott has really struggled against some of these better defenses, and we see it happening again. Sure, no one has more passing yards in the NFL this season, but this defense is truly special against the pass.
NFL Week 12 Pick: Patriots (-6)
This is a huge mismatch of head coaching, and we believe that’ll be the ultimate key to victory. There’s no doubt that Belichick has heard some of the grumbling that the Patriots’ run is coming to an end. Look for him to take that to heart and make a statement on Sunday.
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (-3) – O/U: 47.5
Sunday, November 24, 2019 – 8:20 p.m. EST
NFL Week 12 Pick: Packers (+3)
The Week 12 main event takes place in Santa Clara, as the Green Bay Packers travel to take on the San Francisco 49ers. This matchup will go a long way in determining who will have home-field advantage in the NFC Playoffs. Our top betting pick is for the Packers to cover the three-point spread. Let’s dive into the numbers to see why we’re heading in this direction.
NFL Week 12 Betting Lines: Packers at 49ers
It’s not by much, but the Packers are getting most of the love here. 53% of public bets and 62% of all money wagered is heading in their direction. Surprisingly, the 49ers have now failed to cover four of the last five games – with a push luckily coming last week against the Cardinals. On the flip side, the Packers are coming off their bye week fully rested. We’re going with the Cheeseheads in this one!
Packers Form
As we just mentioned, that week off coming into this game will certainly help the Packers. We don’t have a history of how Matt LaFleur-coached teams fare coming off the bye, but he’s shown to be a competent guy that knows his football.
QB Aaron Rodgers will be happy to be back in his home state of California. Two weeks ago, that Green Bay weather was downright awful with loads of snow falling down at the end of the game. Although the 49ers defense has been tough for most of the season, they have allowed at least 24 points in each of the last three games. What’s interesting is that they’ve faced mobile/elusive QBs in those games, and Rodgers can certainly add on to the hurt.
At the end of the day, this is a mostly-healthy Packers team coming in fresh off the bye week. We really like them to handle the 49ers in this one.
49ers Form
While the Packers are healthy, the same cannot be said about the 49ers. The offense has a lot of key players that are dinged up but should play. This list includes big playmakers like TE George Kittle, RB Matt Breida and WRs Deebo Samuel and Emmanuel Sanders. The 49ers also have a very tough schedule coming up. We’re not saying that they’ll be looking past the Packers, but you have to wonder how hard they’ll be pushing those key playmakers with injuries.
Green Bay’s ferocious pass-rush is one that can make life difficult on QB Jimmy Garoppolo. Just as we saw against Seattle, defenses like that can get in on him and force him to make bad decisions. We expect more of that to happen on Sunday night.
NFL Week 12 Pick: Packers (+3)
We laid out the groundwork for the Packers to win this game – now they just have to do it. We believe they will for a number of reasons, mainly health, but it seems crazy that we’re actually getting points in this matchup. Hey, who are we to disagree? We’ll take those points!
