Week 12 of the NFL season gets kicked off with a Thanksgiving Day tripleheader of football action. In this article, I will identify the three most profitable bets from the matchups on Thursday: Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions, Las Vegas Raiders at Dallas Cowboys & Buffalo Bills at New Orleans Saints.
You might also like
Plus, I’ll show you the latest NFL odds, lines, and totals from the best NFL betting sites. Without further ado, let’s dive into my top NFL picks for Thanksgiving Day.
Thanksgiving Day NFL Football Picks
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions
| Bears | Lions | |
| ML | -145 | +125 |
| Spread | -3 (-110) | +3 (-110) |
| Totals | O41 (-110) | U41 (-110) |
It seems like the public is overly fixated on betting against Andy Dalton, and that may not be the smartest thing. After all, the Lions are 0-9-1 this season and it looks like backup QB Tim Boyle will be getting the start on Thursday. Boyle was able to keep the game close last week against the Browns, but he only threw for 77 yards and two interceptions; Dalton threw for 201 in about a half of football.
The Bears haven’t offered a ton of hope at 3-7 this season, and it’s not like things are looking too optimistic down the stretch. However, this is a matchup they should dominate against the Lions.
Pick: Bears (-3)
Las Vegas Raiders at Dallas Cowboys
| Raiders | Cowboys | |
| ML | +280 | -350 |
| Spread | +7.5 (-110) | -7.5 (-110) |
| Totals | O51.5 (-110) | U51.5 (-110) |
I would love to get a higher number on the Raiders, maybe getting to +8 or +9 if I’m really lucky. Nevertheless, +7.5 should work just fine. Las Vegas has played three horrendous football games in a row, so the best way to rid that play is to get right back out there quickly and make things right. The Raiders will need to slow this game down and not let things get out of hand early.
As for the Cowboys, they have lost two of their last three games; in those two losses, they posted 16 points (all in garbage time) against the Broncos and nine against the Chiefs. Perhaps, the AFC West has the goods on Dallas. After all, the Chargers also held the Cowboys to 20 points.
Pick: Raiders (+7.5)
Buffalo Bills at New Orleans Saints
| Bills | Saints | |
| ML | -270 | +220 |
| Spread | -6.5 (-110) | +6.5 (-110) |
| Totals | O45 (-110) | U45 (-110) |
Neither team has been impressive recently, but the Saints’ defense has been especially bad. In the last four contests, this once intimidating defense has allowed an average of 29.3 points per game.
I don’t necessarily think that New Orleans has thrown in the towel on the season, but they just don’t have the same level of talent as in previous years. This problem is further compounded by the fact that Alvin Kamara will likely miss another game. Good performances by the Bills have been coming and going this season, but as one of my NFL picks, I believe they’ll get it done on the road this week.
Pick: Bills (-4)
