In this article, we’ll provide you with our top football betting picks for the Week 7 slate of Sunday games. This week, we’ll have predictions on the Cardinals at the Giants, the Vikings at the Lions, and Eagles at the Cowboys matchups. We study the odds, betting lines, teams, and players to give you our recommended betting picks to beat the New Jersey sportsbooks.
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Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants (-3) – O/U: 50.5
Betting Pick: Giants (-3)
Sunday, October 20th, 2019 – 1:00 p.m. EST
We’ve got a matchup of the first two quarterbacks taken in the 2019 NFL Draft this Sunday. The 2-3-1 Arizona Cardinals and their number-one overall pick have won two straight games while the 2-4 New York Giants and their number-six overall pick have lost two straight. Despite that, we expect a bounceback from the home team and that’s why our top betting pick is the Giants to cover the three-point spread. Let’s dive into the facts and figures to make sense of all this.
Week 7 Betting Lines Analysis: Cardinals at Giants
Our line of thinking is on par with many others, and we’re not scared of that. In fact, 63 percent of public bets/80 percent of all money wagered is on the Giants. Although New York has lost its last two games, those came against heavyweights Minnesota and New England. We think they’ll be well-prepared for this game, especially getting an extra three days of rest heading into Sunday.
Cardinals Betting Form
The Cardinals will be playing their second game in the Eastern Time Zone, with the first being a six-point loss to the Ravens. This is a difficult task for teams, especially with a rookie quarterback, since it sets the internal clock back a bit.
Kyler Murray has been solid over the last two games, with 718 total yards and four touchdowns. It’s good news for the rookie QB, but it’s also important to note that those games were against the Bengals and Falcons – not exactly stellar defenses. On Sunday, he’ll be facing a Giants defense that has had their moments at times season. They did allow 35 points against the Patriots, but 14 of those were not on the defense’s record.
Arizona’s defense is allowing the third-most yards per game (414.0) and has the second-fewest takeaways (3), so this could end up being where New York gets the better of them. Even in the Cardinals’ last two wins, they have allowed a total of 56 points. One bit of good news, though, is that they’ll get back all-world CB Patrick Peterson after his six-game suspension for PED use.
Giants Betting Form
Rookie QB Daniel Jones will likely have RB Saquon Barkley back for this game and that’ll obviously be a huge help for this offense. The Giants will still likely be without WR Sterling Shepard but will get TE Evan Engram back – the Cardinals have allowed at least four TEs to have 75 receiving yards (three with 100) and seven touchdowns in total to the position. Look for the Giants to take advantage of this matchup.
The Cardinals’ defense is allowing the third-most passing yards per game (281.2) and seventh-most rushing yards per game (132.8). With Barkley coming back, look for the Giants to put him in a number of different positions to expose this weakness as well.
As we mentioned, the Giants’ defense actually looked pretty damn good against the Patriots last Thursday. New York’s defense would greatly benefit if Arizona RB David Johnson isn’t at 100 percent with his injured ankle and hamstring, so look out for that news closer to kickoff.
Week 7 Betting Pick: Giants (-3)
It’s always tough for the West coast team coming East, but especially in this case with the Giants having an extra three days to prepare. Not to mention, getting Barkley back will be a huge boost for the offense and the Giants actually have a chance to make a move closer to the top of the NFC East. Hey, stranger things have happened.
Minnesota Vikings (-1.5) at Detroit Lions – O/U: 43.5
Sunday, October 20, 2019 – 1:00 p.m. EST
Betting Pick: Vikings (ML: -130)
The 2-2-1 Detroit Lions are coming off two tough-to-swallow losses while the 4-2 Minnesota Vikings are looking like one of the best teams in football. Momentum is a big thing, and that’s why the Vikings winning outright is our top betting pick in this game. Let’s dig into the stats and trends a bit more to see why we’re rolling with the road team in this one.
Week 7 Betting Lines: Vikings at Lions
In terms of moneyline bets, we’re seeing 52 percent of public bets on the Lions while 74 percent of all money wagered is on the Vikings. It’s odd, but more bets (public: 63 percent/all money wagered: 70 percent) is in favor of the Vikings as well. Folks, let’s just get the outright win here and not even worry about points.
Vikings Betting Form
The Vikings have some great ATS trends for bettors to rely on, going 11-3 as a favorite over the last 14 games and 17-5 over the last 22 games played under a roof. We talked briefly about it last week, but QB Kirk Cousins is a creature of habit and a lot has been made about how much better he plays in games at 1:00 p.m. EST. There’s just something about being thrown off his routine that affects his performance at other times of the day. In his last two games, both played at 1:00 p.m. EST, Cousins has thrown six touchdowns and one interception.
One thing that has been working for the Vikings is their rushing attack, which ranks third-best in the NFL for yards per game (159.0). Not to mention, the Lions’ run-defense ranks sixth-worst in rushing yards allowed per game (133.8) – they also rank fifth-worst in passing yards allowed per game (280.0) and fourth-worst in total yards allowed per game (413.8).
In comparison, the Vikings’ defense has allowed the fifth-fewest total yards per game (310.3) on the strength of the No. 7 passing-defense (218.8 yards per game) and No. 9 rushing-defense (91.5 yards per game). Not to mention, their 15.5 points allowed per game ranks sixth-best in the NFL.
Lions Betting Form
As the world knows, each of the last two Lions’ games ended in heartbreaking fashion – a blown double-digit lead/late loss to the impressive Chiefs and Packers. This will be the third consecutive quality opponent the Lions have faced, giving them another chance to right their wrongs. However, that might not be such a good thing since they’re playing with one day less to prepare.
The last time QB Matt Stafford threw for over 300 yards against the Vikings was all the way back in 2013. Last season against them, he failed to throw a touchdown and reach 200 yards (one game went for 199) in either game. Speaking of failing to throw a touchdown, Monday’s game against the Packers was the first time Stafford failed to do so this season. Perhaps, that regression is heading in the wrong direction.
Week 7 Betting Pick: Vikings (ML: -130)
The Vikings are 3-1 (straight up/ATS) in their last four meetings against the Lions. We’re pretty damn confident that Minnesota will do it once again, considering Detroit has the lowest implied team total decrease (-1.8) of any team on the entire Week 7 slate.
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-3) – O/U: 48.5
Sunday, October 20th, 2019 – 8:20 p.m. EST
Betting Pick: Eagles (+3)
The NFC East is up for grabs as the 3-3 Philadelphia Eagles travel to take on the 3-3 Dallas Cowboys. Last season, Dallas swept the two-game series against Philly with a pair of single-digit wins. However, we think this matchup will be different and that’s why the Eagles are our top betting pick in this game. Let’s crunch some numbers and see why the road team will move into first place on Sunday night.
Week 7 Betting Lines: Eagles at Cowboys
We’ve got company once again, as 68 percent of public bets and 87 percent of all money wagered is on the Eagles. It’s not a big secret that both teams have been ravaged by injuries, and it appears like the home-field advantage doesn’t matter too much for anyone’s liking. Philly does tend to play better in these bigger games and we can definitely give the coaching advantage to that side as well.
As for the total, which increased from 48.5 to 50.5, the public and sharps are both putting plenty of money on the over. This is interesting, considering the 49ers’ defense has been spectacular, and it also lends some optimism to the thought that we might even see some defensive/special teams’ touchdowns in this game.
Eagles Betting Form
QB Carson Wentz has gone through some tough times this season, between injuries and tons of dropped passes. However, it seems like his situation a bit more salvageable with possibly missing only LT Jason Peters and WR DeSean Jackson on the offensive side of the ball.
The big advantage for the Eagles could be running the ball at this Cowboys’ defensive front. Granted, the Eagles aren’t necessarily known for their running game, but they did move the ball quite effectively in that manner against the Packers just a few weeks ago. RBs Jordan Howard and Miles Sanders would be in charge of that, should this be the route they go.
Last, and certainly least, the Philly pass-defense has been a major disappointment this season. Injuries are definitely to blame for that, but the numerous injuries to Dallas’ tackles and wide receivers should make things easier. They were not effective in stopping the Minnesota running game last week, and Dallas did crush them with their star running back last season. It should be another interesting matchup there once again.
Cowboys Betting Form
The Cowboys could be in big trouble on Sunday night if they’re missing WR Amari Cooper, and that looks very likely. We saw QB Dak Prescott struggle mightily without him last week against the Jets, and even though the Eagles’ secondary has been ravaged by injuries, it’s not like the Cowboys will have too many weapons to attack them with. Not only will Prescott be missing his best receiving option, but he’ll likely be missing WR Randall Cobb and both of tackles. Yikes.
RB Zeke Elliott tore up the Eagles last season and he’ll certainly need to be a factor in this one if the Cowboys want to come away with the victory. Elliott has not been a key piece of the offense this season, but perhaps this is a game where he can get back on track.
As for the defense, this is the unit that will have to play an even bigger part than usual. Creating turnovers can give Dak and Zeke some short fields to work with, and they’ll need that with all of the chaos and injuries on the offense right now.
Week 7 Betting Pick: Eagles +3
With such a chaotic week for both teams, we’ll take the smaller circus. Philly can still move the ball with the pieces they have in place, whereas Dallas probably won’t be able to. In any event, this should still be a thrilling game to end the Sunday slate. After all, it usually is.
