It’s yet another week of NFL player props to take advantage of, and this time we’re doing it for the quarterbacks in Week 10. The guys I’ll be breaking down all have a case to make for the NFL’s MVP award. With only seven weeks to go in the regular season, it’s time to start getting down to business.
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In this article, I will break down the best value of QBs in the prop betting market. The odds in this article are courtesy of William Hill.
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Table of contents
In this article, I will identify the best value in the player prop betting market. The odds in this article come to us from William Hill Sportsbook.
Aaron Rodgers against The Jags
Sunday, 1:00 pm EST | Watch: FOX
Lambeau Field – Green Bay, WI
Prop Bets Watch:
- Over 2.5 Passing TDs (+150)
- Over 279.5 Passing Yards (-115)
- Over 9.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
While the Jaguars only allow the ninth-fewest passing attempts per game (33.5), they are getting toasted for the fifth-most passing yards per game (280). Jacksonville has also allowed four different QBs to pass for 280+ yards and 2+ TDs—Deshaun Watson actually did it twice already.
Rodgers has been going crazy on opposing defenses of late, with 280+ passing yards in each of the last three games and a 11 TD – 0 INT ratio over that span.
With the Packers playing the 1-7 Jaguars, here’s an interesting note: Aaron Rodgers has never lost to a team with a winning percentage of .125 or worse at any point in the season. He’s 8-0 in those games with the Packers winning by an average of 18.4… https://t.co/djJBk7jT6O
— Rob Demovsky (@RobDemovsky) November 11, 2020
The Packers have the highest implied team total (31.75) on the slate, and that’s even with it opening at 33.75. If you needed any more proof, here’s the skinny on this matchup in the tweet above.
Keep in mind, there is a 60% chance of rain in the forecast on Sunday. As of now, it’s considered “light rain” but that could change at a moment’s notice… like some other things in Wisconsin.
Russell Wilson against The Rams
Sunday, 4:25 pm EST | Watch: FOX
SoFi Stadium – Inglewood, CA
Prop Bets Watch:
- Over 0.5 Passing INTs (-130)
- Under 2.5 Passing TDs (-210)
- Under 293.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Most people feel like Wilson is matchup-proof, and he very well could be. But I like the odds for him to perform below expectations on Sunday. Not only are the Seahawks coming off a game on the East Coast, but they’re also facing a Rams defense that is allowing the second-fewest passing yards per game (197.1) this season.
It’s worth noting that Wilson has only passed for 300+ yards once in 16 career games against the Rams. Part of the reason for all of this recently is the fact that LA runs the ball efficiently. If teams can do that, they can keep Wilson off the field.
Rams have blitzed just 27.8 percent of the time so far this season — No. 18 in the NFL — but may take a page out of Buffalo's playbook and dial up more pressure:https://t.co/yc0rRoWR9s
— Eric Williams (@eric_d_williams) November 12, 2020
Wilson turned in his worst performance of the season with four turnovers in Buffalo last week. Two weeks prior to that game, he had plenty of mental gaffs which led to a loss against Arizona. That now makes a total of five INTs (seven turnovers) in his last two road games.
More NFL Props
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Josh Allen against The Cardinals
Sunday, 4:25 pm | Watch: CBS
State Farm Stadium – Glendale, AZ
Prop Bets Watch:
- Over 1.5 Passing TDs (-150)
- Over 298.5 Passing Yards (-115)
- Over 32.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
The Cardinals defense has abided by the “bend but don’t break” mentality this season. A lot of that has to do with Patrick Peterson and Buddha Baker in the secondary. However, this could wind up being a matchup that treats us to the highest scoring game of the week.
Allen is coming off one of his best performances of the season, throwing for 415 yards and three TDs against the Seahawks last week.
Two of the most elusive quarterbacks will face off on Sunday, with Josh Allen and the Bills visiting Kyler Murray and the Cardinals.
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) November 11, 2020
Allen (29.2%) & Murray (28.1%) lead the NFL in pressure evaded rate by a considerable margin this season.#BUFvsARI | #BillsMafia | #RedSea pic.twitter.com/2M9YdXWTFr
Russell Wilson just rushed for 84 yards against the Cards a couple of weeks ago, while Tua Tagovailoa (33) and Teddy Bridgewater (32) turned in respectable performances as well. Hell, even Joe Flacco had 20 yards against them. I’d make the bet on Allen being somewhere in the 50s now that the Bills realize they need to let him run in order to be successful.
