Week 11 of the NFL season has some juicy matchups to sink our teeth into from a betting and DFS perspective. Now that we’re coming down the homestretch of the season, the games will become tougher. For that reason, you’re going to see more analysis in this article about players not performing well.
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This week’s matchups going under the microscope are:
Table of contents
- Tua Tagovialoa (Miami Dolphins) at Denver Broncos
- Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs) at Las Vegas Raiders
In this article, I will identify the best value in the player props betting market from the QB position with the odds in this article are brought to us via William Hill. Remember, you can sign up to William Hill using my promo code TS500 to get a $500 free bet.
Tua Tagovialoa (Miami Dolphins) at Denver Broncos
Sunday, 4:05 pm | Watch: CBS
Empower Field at Mile High – Denver, CO
Prop Bets Watch:
- Under 226.5 Passing Yards (-115)
- Under 1.5 Passing TDs (-145)
If you have been listening to my podcast Taking Sides, you’ll know that I’m not the biggest Tagovialoa fan out there. Sooner or later, I do feel like defenses will learn his weaknesses and exploit them. Not to mention, the hip injury is something that can take a toll at some point in the future.
The setting for Sunday’s matchup against the Broncos is a tough one a mile high in the sky. The altitude has affected many teams before and will do so again in the future. It could especially be tough on rookies who have never been in that setting. Denver’s pass defense even ranks slight above average this season.
Most TDs on 20+ yard throws by rookie QBs
— PFF College (@PFF_College) November 18, 2020
1. Justin Herbert – 9
2. Joe Burrow – 1
2. Jake Luton – 1
4. Tua Tagovailoa – 0 pic.twitter.com/lXxaZKCzOp
Miami has been riding this Tua train well for the last three weeks. However, we know that the NFL is a whacky business each week. This could very well be a spot where the Dolphins fall flat.
NFL Player Props
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Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs) at Las Vegas Raiders
Sunday, 8:20 pm | Watch: NBC
Allegiant Stadium – Las Vegas, NV
Prop Bets Watch:
- Over 319.5 Passing Yards (-110)
- Over 2.5 TD Passes (-110)
Finally, we’re going to get to some optimism for one of these QBs! Andy Reid and the Chiefs are coming off a bye week, and that has typically been a good thing. In fact, Reid is 18-3 straight up in games coming off a bye week.
Mahomes has averaged 306.8 passing yards per game in five meetings with the Raiders. In that span, he also has a 13 TD-2 INT ratio.
REMINDER: Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes is on pace for 4,777 yards, 44 TD and just 2 INT this season.#ChiefsKingdom pic.twitter.com/c6tPmJOvkq
— CBS Sports HQ (@CBSSportsHQ) November 18, 2020
Let’s not forget there’s plenty of motivation for the Chiefs to lay it on the Raiders this week. Earlier this season, Las Vegas went right into KC and won outright at Arrowhead Stadium. After the game, they did a mini-parade route around the stadium. Reid and the Chiefs certainly haven’t forgotten that.
