Now that the Thanksgiving turkey is down the gullet, it’s time to dig in on the Sunday slate for Week 12 of the NFL season. With the playoffs right around the corner, it’s time for teams and players to start getting down to business.
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In this article, I will evaluate the best value NFL player props in the QB market with odds from Bet365 Sportsbook.
Table of contents
- Derek Carr (Las Vegas Raiders) at Atlanta Falcons
- Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills) vs. Los Angeles Chargers
- Tom Brady (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Derek Carr (Las Vegas Raiders) at Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, 1:00 pm EST | Watch: CBS
Mercedes-Benz Stadium – Atlanta, GA
Prop Bets Watch: Over 273.5 Passing Yards (-120)
The Falcons’ defense is allowing the second-most passing yards per game (300.3) this season. In fact, seven different QBs have passed for at least 313 yards against them. That puts Carr at the forefront of the discussion, considering the NFL’s worst pass defense (Seattle Seahawks) doesn’t play until Monday night.
There wasn't a doubt in Derek Carr's mind 😆🙌
— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) November 23, 2020
(via @thecheckdown) pic.twitter.com/BFsn1x1H42
Nevertheless, Carr’s best deep weapons (WRs Nelson Agholor and Henry Ruggs III) will be able to get behind a Falcons defense that has been consistently beaten by the deep ball this season. Not to mention, Atlanta has allowed the most explosive passes (20+) in the NFL.
It is interesting to note that the Falcons have not allowed one 100-yard rusher this season. You have to wonder if Raiders head coach Jon Gruden switches up the game plan this week and lets it fly with Carr a little more often. Las Vegas does allow the fifth-most passing yards per game (273.6), so this does have sneaky potential for a shootout in the ATL.
Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills) vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Sunday, 1:00 pm EST | Watch: CBS
Bills Stadium – Orchard Park, NY
Prop Bets Watch: Over 32.5 rushing yards (-120)
If you watched me and Pauly Parlays on Taking Sides this week, you’ll know that I’m big on the Bills in this matchup against the Chargers. Simply put, Buffalo’s coaching staff will put its players in a better position to win this game and win it convincingly.
Highest % of positively graded plays:
— PFF (@PFF) November 21, 2020
🔹 Ryan Tannehill
🔹 Patrick Mahomes
🔹 Josh Allen
🔹 Cam Newton pic.twitter.com/mQYPCf61c7
Allen pretty much is the Bills’ offense, throwing for 2,871 yards and rushing for another 279 – the latter ranks second on the team. This game does have the third-highest total on the entire Week 12 slate, so we’re all expecting a bit of fireworks from this one.
The Chargers have allowed two QBs – Patrick Mahomes: 54 yards, Joe Burrow: 46 yards – to have big rushing games already this season. The rest of the QBs they faced weren’t trying to run anywhere.
Tom Brady (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, 4:25 pm EST | Watch: CBS
Raymond James Stadium – Tampa, FL
Prop Bets Watch: Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-220)
It wasn’t a great start to the week for Brady, who threw two uncharacteristically bad INTs in a close loss to the LA Rams.
However, we have seen The GOAT come back strong before after an embarrassing performance. Luckily, the Chiefs are coming to town, with only 19 sacks through 10 games. KC does have the ninth-highest pressure rate in the NFL, but it obviously hasn’t done much up to this point – in terms of getting to the QB.
Andy Reid on Tom Brady today: "He's old, and it's hard to tell that he's old, and it's a tribute to how he takes care of himself." #Chiefs #Bucs
— Sara Walsh (@Sara_Walsh) November 25, 2020
The Chiefs’ defense has allowed a TD on 22 of their 29 red zone chances this season. With plenty of weapons at his disposal, Brady should have a profitable day getting the ball into the end zone.
