Week 11 of the NFL season has some juicy matchups to sink our teeth into from a betting and DFS perspective. Now that we’re coming down the homestretch of the season, the games will have a bigger impact on the standings. It’s quite fascinating, but all of the RBs I’ll break down in this grouping are all at home this Sunday.
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This week’s matchups going under the microscope are:
Table of contents
- Mike Davis (Carolina Panthers) vs. Detroit Lions
- Dalvin Cook (Minnesota Vikings) vs. Dallas Cowboys
- Nyheim Hines (Indianapolis Colts) vs. Green Bay Packers
In this article, I will identify the best value in the prop bets market for the RB position. The odds in this article are courtesy of William Hill, Bet365, and SugarHouse Sportsbook.
Mike Davis (Carolina Panthers) vs. Detroit Lions
Sunday, 1:00 pm | Watch: FOX
Bank of America Stadium – Charlotte, NC
Prop Bets Watch:
- Over 89.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-120)
- Anytime Touchdown (-138)
This is set up to be a huge day for Davis, who will have the lead RB role with Christian McCaffrey out again. Not to mention, QB Teddy Bridgewater may even miss this game as well.
Davis was a huge disappointment last week against the Bucs, but he was also bothered by a nagging thumb injury. That’s putting it kindly- his thumb went a way that thumbs aren’t supposed to go. Nevertheless, this is a big smash spot for him to make it up to us.
Best Week 11 RB Matchups
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) November 19, 2020
– Mike Davis vs Lions (allowing 35.89 fantasy PPG to RB)
– Nyheim Hines/Jonathan Taylor/Jordan Wilkins vs Packers (allowing 31.73 fantasy PPG to RB)
– Damien Harris/Rex Burkhead/James White vs Texans (allowing 30.04 fantasy PPG to RB)
Detroit has been a great matchup for RBs, ranking third-worst in rushing yards allowed per game (141.6) and fourth-worst in rushing yards allowed per carry (4.7). This should be a great day for Davis to repay all of the people that had so much faith in him last game.
Dalvin Cook (Minnesota Vikings) vs. Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, 4:25 pm | Watch: FOX
US Bank Stadium – Minneapolis, MN
Prop Bets Watch:
- Over 97.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
- Over 21.5 Rushing Attempts (-125)
- Over 18.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
- Over 2.5 Receptions (-140)
- First Touchdown Scorer (+300)
There’s a lot to like about Cook this week, especially after being held somewhat in check against the Bears on Monday night. While he did get 96 rushing yards, it came on a season-high 30 carries. Cook had rushed for 130+ in four of his previous five games before running into Chicago. Look for him to get back on the good foot and do his thing in a great spot.
The Cowboys defense is second-worst in rushing yards allowed (157) and rushing yards per carry (5.0) while ranking fifth worst in run defense DVOA. When looking at all of the yardage output from their opponents, the really hasn’t faced too many superstar RBs.
" A wet paper bag has a better chance of stopping a Mack truck than the Dallas Cowboys defense does at stopping Dalvin Cook".
— Bill Michaels (@Bill_Michaels) November 20, 2020
ESPN"s Bart Scott
Point is, if guys like Kenyan Drake and Antonio Gibson can run all over Dallas, so can Cook.
NFL Player Props
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Nyheim Hines (Indianapolis Colts) vs. Green Bay Packers
Sunday, 4:25 pm | Watch: FOX
Lucas Oil Stadium – Indianapolis, IN
Prop Bets Watch:
- Over 27.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
- Over 3.5 Receptions (-125)
- Over 30.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
- Over 61.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115)
The Colts being favored by 2.5 points is really sticking out to me. In fact, the Packers opened as 2.5-point favorites before dropping to their current state. In my opinion, this is going to be a huge day for the Indy defense, which should also set things up nicely for Hines as well.
Last week’s matchup against the Titans was mind boggling for some, considering this Colts backfield has many pieces can get the job done. However, I think this week sets up quite nicely for Hines. The Packers run defense can get absolutely gashed at times and have already been destroyed by Dalvin Cook and Alvin Kamara- the latter of which draws a slight comparison. In that game against the Packers, Kamara had 13 grabs on 14 targets for 139 yards and 2 TD.
Nyheim Hines is going to give the Packers all sorts of problems.
— Aaron Nagler (@AaronNagler) November 19, 2020
Colts QB Philip Rivers has absolutely no arm strength whatsoever. Please believe that he’ll be looking for Hines quite a bit. In addition, Hines’ workload on the ground increased dramatically last week, as he got a season-high 12 carries for 70 yards and a TD. He also added five catches on six targets for 45 yards and a TD through the air last week.
