Week 11 of the NFL season has some juicy matchups to sink our teeth into from a betting and DFS perspective. Now that we’re coming down the homestretch of the season, the games will have a bigger impact on the standings. All three of the WRs getting dissected in this week’s article will be on the road team, meaning that the likelihood of desire to throw the football will be there.
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This week’s matchups going under the microscope are:
Table of contents
- Calvin Ridley (Atlanta Falcons) at New Orleans Saints
- Jakobi Meyers (New England Patriots) at Houston Texans
- Tyreek Hill (Kansas City Chiefs) at Las Vegas Raiders
In this article, I will identify the best value in the prop bets market for the RB position. The odds in this article are courtesy of William Hill, Bet365 and SugarHouse Sportsbook.
Calvin Ridley (Atlanta Falcons) at New Orleans Saints
Sunday, 1:00 pm | Watch: FOX
Mercedes-Benz Superdome – New Orleans, LA
Prop Bets Watch:
- Over 4.5 Receptions (-110)
- Over 59.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
- 2+ TD (+1000)
Ridley should definitely have a big day, considering fellow WR Julio Jones should be shadowed by Saints CB Marshon Lattimore. If that is the case, Ridley is going to have a much better position to capitalize on.
Julio Jones has compiled a 94/1482/3 line in 16 career games v #Saints
— Anthony Cervino (@therealNFLguru) November 18, 2020
Calvin Ridley has a 26/358/4 line in 4 games
What did you notice?
Ridley has one more TD than Jones in 12 fewer games #Falcons #FantasyFootball
In four career games against the Saints, Ridley has exceeded 90 yards three times and had at least seven catches and eight targets. Oh yes, and he’s also got a total of four TDs in those four games.
More NFL Prop Bets
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Jakobi Meyers (New England Patriots) at Houston Texans
Sunday, 1:00 pm | Watch: CBS
NRG Stadium – Houston, TX
Prop Bets Watch:
- Over 4.5 Receptions (-125)
- Over 58.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
Thanks to the absence of Julian Edelman, the overwhelming percentage of targets (40% of Newton’s throws) have gone to Meyers. Even if Edelman were to return this week (still no word), but Meyers has already cemented a place in this Patriots offense. Edelman wasn’t at practice on Friday, so that’s probably not a good sign for his availability.
Houston’s pass defense ranks well below average this season, so this is definitely a matchup we should be taking advantage of. Plenty of No. 1 WRs have gone crazy on the Texans before this season.
Top Receiving Grade among WRs through 10 weeks of 2020:
— PFF NE Patriots (@PFF_Patriots) November 18, 2020
🥇 Davante Adams – 91.9
🥈 Justin Jefferson – 90.8
🥉 Jakobi Meyers – 89.7 pic.twitter.com/TVyJ02jbOw
it’s also worth noting how much of a line movement is going in favor of the Patriots. After opening as a three-point underdog, the Pats are now 1.5-point favorites.
Tyreek Hill (Kansas City Chiefs) at Las Vegas Raiders
Sunday, 8:20 pm | Watch: NBC
Allegiant Stadium – Las Vegas, NV
Prop Bets Watch:
- Over 5.5 Receptions (-125)
- Over 75.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
- 2+ TDs (+333)
I already wrote up Patrick Mahomes in the QB props section, so it’s only natural that I’d have his No. 1 WR to go along with it. Hill has 75+ yards in four of his last six games against the Raiders, who are known for giving up big-chunk plays.
As I mentioned in the Mahomes article, there is plenty of motivation for the Chiefs to put a thumping on the Raiders. If that is the case, and they really want to run up the score, that means we can probably expect a big game from Mahomes and Hill.
The last time he played the Raiders, a penalty negated a 58-yard TD for Tyreek Hill. Fresh off the bye week, look for Andy Reid to exploit that same mismatch again and feature Tyreek in the Chiefs' explosive passing game.
— Tyler Buecher (@TylerBuecher) November 18, 2020
Week 11 WR/CB Matchups to Target: https://t.co/mCg0IgmO5v pic.twitter.com/GOLBsDRhDZ
Over the last two games, Hill has 13 catches for 211 yards and 4 TD. Not to mention, KC is coming off the bye week, raising the level of optimism for a huge performance.
