Week 13 of the NFL season continues with two interconference games on Monday night, as the Washington Football Team faces the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Buffalo Bills travel out West to face the San Francisco 49ers. All four teams are immersed in the thick of the playoff race, so it should certainly be a double dose of must-see TV.
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In this article, I’ll identify the best value in the player prop betting market from these two games, choosing one play from each of the four teams. The odds in this article are brought to you by William Hill – New Jersey residents can use the promo code – TS500 – for a 100% deposit bonus up to $500.
Table of contents
- Alex Smith (Washington Football Team) at Pittsburgh Steelers
- Chase Claypool (Pittsburgh Steelers) vs. Washington Football Team
- Stefon Diggs (Buffalo Bills) at San Francisco 49ers
- Jordan Reed (San Francisco 49ers) vs. Buffalo Bills
Alex Smith (Washington Football Team) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Monday, 5:00 pm EST | Watch: FOX
Heinz Field – Pittsburgh, PA
Under 218.5 Passing Yards (-115)
The Steelers flash the NFL’s #1 pass defense in DVOA and yards allowed per pass attempt. Not to mention, WFT’s offensive line is not that great at all. Earlier this season, a similarly strong LA Rams defense absolutely abused them. Now, we have to imagine what Pittsburgh will do to this part of Washington’s team.
Ron Rivera says one of his biggest focuses this week is how well the Steelers defense forces turnovers. Washington will need Alex Smith and skill position guys to protect the ball
— JP Finlay (@JPFinlayNBCS) December 3, 2020
After passing for 300+ yards in two straight games, Smith has totaled just 315 of them over the last two games. This will clearly be the toughest defense he has faced this season.
Chase Claypool (Pittsburgh Steelers) vs. Washington Football Team
Monday, 5:00 pm EST | Watch: FOX
Heinz Field – Pittsburgh, PA
Over 50.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
WFT’s defense gets the third-highest defensive aDOT (average depth of target) this season at 9.1 yards. While Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger only has an aDOT of 7.1 yards, he’ll likely have to take some deep shots in this matchup. That brings us to Claypool, which ranks first on the team in aDOT at 12.6 yards.
Among all WRs, Chase Claypool has the 3rd highest passer rating when targeted #HereWeGo pic.twitter.com/MHpf9WOx2z
— PFF PIT Steelers (@PFF_Steelers) November 30, 2020
Claypool has exceeded this 50.5-yard mark in each of his last four games, and even has at least eight targets in each of the last five games.
Stefon Diggs (Buffalo Bills) at San Francisco 49ers
Monday, 8:15 pm EST | Watch: ESPN
Levi’s Stadium – Santa Clara, CA
Over 6.5 Receptions (+105)
It’s crazy that we’re getting plus-odds on this bet, albeit barely, so let’s take advantage of it. The 6.5-number is one Diggs has exceeded in three straight games, and his lowest total of the season was four; that happened once, and Diggs has at least six catches in every other game.
While the world debated whether or not Stefon Diggs would succeed in Buffalo, the Bills did their homework on the receiver.
— Marcel Louis-Jacques (@Marcel_LJ) December 7, 2020
Part of that homework included a phone call Brian Daboll made to Mike Locksley, who told him exactly how to coach his new star WR https://t.co/Iq9Mb7eYhy
Diggs was held to a season-low 39 yards last week against the Chargers, a tough matchup for opposing WRs. Those 39 yards still came on a high volume of looks- seven catches on nine targets. Because of the lack of yards last week, I would expect Bills QB Josh Allen would look to find his No. 1 target in a number of creative ways tonight.
49ers CB Richard Sherman doesn’t necessarily move around on defense, staying put on one side of the field. That’ll allow the Bills to put Diggs in a variety of different areas of the field to help us capitalize on this bet.
Jordan Reed (San Francisco 49ers) vs. Buffalo Bills
Monday, 8:15 pm EST | Watch: ESPN
Levi’s Stadium – Santa Clara, CA
Anytime TD Scorer (+275)
The Bills have been quite vulnerable to the TE position this season, allowing five different players to get at least five receptions and seven targets in a game. In fact, four of those five exceeded 60 yards.
Jordan Reed are you freaking serious?? pic.twitter.com/nl3l3FpNen
— Sam Monson (@PFF_Sam) November 15, 2020
With all of that being said, I feel like the path of most likely success is finding the end zone. This should be more of a different style that San Fran plays tonight, in that they’ll need to pick up the pace if they fall behind the Bills- like I think they well. The running game could be beneficial to the 49ers early on, so that will set up some nice play-action opportunities for him and hopefully, have it occur in the end zone.
