Week 12 of the NFL season gets a lid on it as the Seattle Seahawks travel all the way across the country to face the Philadelphia Eagles. The two teams have been heading in opposite directions this season, but a win for the Eagles would surprisingly put them in first place in the NFC East at 4-6-1. The New York Giants, who sit at 4-7, currently lead the division.
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The Seahawks come into tonight’s game as 6.5-point favorites, with the total set at 48.5 points. Seattle owns a comfortable 8-3 lead all-time in head-to-head matchups, with two of those wins coming last season (one in the playoffs)- each game finished at the total score of 17-9.
In this article, I will identify the best value in the player-prop betting markets. All of the odds in this article are brought to you by Bet365 Sportsbook.
Table of contents
| Team | Spread | ML |
|---|---|---|
| SEA | +6.5 | -300 |
| PHI | -6.5 | +240 |
| Total | 48.5 |
Carson Wentz
Pick – Under 238.5 Passing Yards (-120)
Sure, the Seahawks are allowing the most passing yards per game (343.7) this season. To put that in perspective, no other team in the NFL is allowing more than 300 per game.
So, what’s the problem with Wentz? Well, besides himself, many insiders have reported that rookie QB Jalen Hurts will be getting more snaps than usual tonight- with Wentz off the field. The timing is perfect, though, setting the stage for what could turn into a full-blown QB battle in The City of Brotherly Love.
ICYMI: The #Eagles will feature QB Jalen Hurts more tonight than we’ve seen him, as the rookie is set for increased snaps with Carson Wentz off the field: https://t.co/QqFNeRlGV2
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) November 30, 2020
Wentz, the former No. 2 overall pick, would need to throw TDs on his first three throws in order to stave off competition from Hurts- and that’s probably not going to happen. Look for Wentz to struggle early, ushering the way in for Hurts to get the bulk of the snaps at the end of the game.
If the Eagles don’t make this move off of Wentz soon, they’re never going to do it.
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Miles Sanders
Pick – Over 18.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
The Eagles should certainly look to get things going on the ground tonight, especially if they’d like to keep Seahawks QB Russell Wilson off the field for long stretches of time. After all, he was second in the NFL for passing yards coming into Week 12.
Sanders has been highly successful when running the football this season, notching 5.7 yards per carry- third best in the NFL among qualified ball carriers. In fact, the former Penn St. standout has eclipsed tonight’s 62.5-yard mark in all but one of his seven games this season. But there’s one problem- the Seahawks have only allowed two RBs (Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison, from the same Vikings team) to exceed that 62.5-yard mark on the ground.
Miles Sanders hasn't played a game at Lincoln Financial Field since before Halloween, so this should be a treat —https://t.co/UThcCnaSvv
— Bob Vetrone Jr. (@BoopStats) November 30, 2020
While Seattle’s defense has been more vulnerable through the air, we know that Philly wants to get Sanders involved in the offense; and this is where his receiving capabilities will come into play. Sanders’ massive -175 juice on 2.5 receptions tonight does lend some optimism to the fact that he will have the ball in his hands. If you feel like ponying up that money on the receptions prop, great. But we can definitely take advantage of the receiving yards prop first. Seattle has allowed 11 different RBs to get 20+ receiving yards this season.
Tyler Lockett
– Over 5.5 Receptions (-120)
– Over 71.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
– Anytime TD (-110)
It’s yet another edition of America’s favorite rivalry – Tyler Lockett vs. DK Metcalf. The two rarely get the same amount of production in the same game, usually ending up with one doing better than the other. In this matchup, Metcalf will have the more difficult path to success against Eagles CB Darius Slay, leading us right to our main man Lockett.
Highest passer rating when targeted since Wk1 2019:
— PFF (@PFF) November 30, 2020
1. A.J. Brown – 128.5
2. Tyreek Hill – 126.2
3. Tyler Lockett – 125.6
4. D.K. Metcalf – 121.7 pic.twitter.com/4Gn6SuFdih
Slot WRs like Tyler Boyd (CIN, 10-125-0) and Cooper Kupp (LAR, 6-81-0) had some of the biggest games of production against the Eagles so far this season. With that in mind, we’ll look to have Lockett be the latest one in the lineage of success there. Lockett has been targeted nine times in each of his last two games, so we can probably expect to see more of the same tonight.
