Many golf fans across the world would consider the British Open as the best tournament for everyone, in that we’ll see some of the world’s best here — not just those that can make it to US soil. Last year’s version of the tournament was canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but it was Shane Lowry winning by six strokes in 2019. He, along with 100+ other golfers, will be looking to take home the trophy. Here are some of the top selections, based on 2021 British Open Golf Odds.
When looking at golfers this week, let’s keep the following stats in mind:
- Strokes Gained Off-The-Tee
- Strokes Gained Approach-The-Green
- Putting Birdie or Better Percentage (Birdie or Better %)
- Scrambling
Odds To Win 2021 British Open Championship
| Golfers | Odds |
|---|---|
| John Rahm | +700 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | +1400 |
| Dustin Johnson | +1500 |
| Rory McIlroy | +1600 |
| Xander Schauffele | +1600 |
| Brooks Koepka | +1600 |
| Justin Thomas | +2000 |
| Jordan Spieth | +2000 |
| Louis Oosthuizen | +3000 |
| Shane Lowry | +3300 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | +3300 |
| Patrick Cantlay | +3300 |
| Matthew Fitzpatrick | +3300 |
| Patrick Reed | +3300 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | +3300 |
| Paul Casey | +3500 |
| Viktor Hovland | +4000 |
| Scottie Scheffler | +4000 |
| Webb Simpson | +4000 |
| Lee Westwood | +4000 |
| Colin Morikawa | +4000 |
| Tony Finau | +4500 |
| Justin Rose | +4500 |
| Daniel Berger | +5000 |
| Cameron Smith | +5500 |
| Sergio Garcia | +5500 |
| Marc Leishman | +5500 |
| Branden Grace | +5500 |
| Joaquin Niemann | +6000 |
| Ian Poulter | +6000 |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout | +6000 |
| Adam Scott | +6600 |
| Abraham Ancer | +6600 |
| Garrick Higgo | +6600 |
| Will Zalatoris | +6600 |
| Rickie Fowler | +6600 |
| Robert MacIntyre | +6600 |
| Lucas Herbert | +7000 |
| Phil Mickelson | +7000 |
| Harris English | +7000 |
| Jason Day | +7000 |
| Alex Noren | +9000 |
| Ryan Palmer | +9000 |
| Jason Kokrak | +9000 |
| Sam Burns | +10000 |
| Corey Conners | +10000 |
| Thomas Detry | +10000 |
| Matt Wallace | +10000 |
| Martin Kaymer | +10000 |
| Brian Harman | +12500 |
| Victor Perez | +12500 |
| Guido Migliozzi | +12500 |
| Danny Willett | +12500 |
| Min Woo Lee | +12500 |
| Stewart Cink | +12500 |
| Gary Woodland | +12500 |
| Bernd Wiesberger | +12500 |
| Francesco Molinari | +12500 |
| Russell Henley | +12500 |
| Padraig Harrington | +12500 |
| Billy Horschel | +15000 |
Full list of odds provided by William Hill
2021 British Open Odds To Win Analysis
It is certainly intriguing to see Jon Rahm with the best odds (by far) of any golfer to win the British Open. Not necessarily him, in particular, rather how far the gap is between him and the next favored golfer. Rahm’s +700 odds are doubled by Bryson DeChambeau (+1400), and there’s a grouping of Dustin Johnson (+1500), Rory McIlroy (+1600), Xander Schauffele (+1600) and Brooks Koepka (+1600).
Top Picks to Win 2021 British Open
Jon Rahm (+700)
Alright, let’s see what all of the fuss is about with these top-heavy odds. Rahm is coming off some impressive golf in recent weeks, with three Top-10 finishes in his last four outings. In lieu of those great finishes, Rahm does rank second in Strokes-Gained Off-the-Tee, seventh in Strokes-Gained on Approach, and 14th on Birdie-or-Better %.
Justin Thomas (+2000)
JT has very strong ranks in Birdie-or-Better % (4th) and Strokes-Gained on Approach (5th). In his last three tournaments, Thomas has finished incrementally better, going T-42, T-19 and T-8. This feels like a weekend he can use that valuable experience in these majors to his advantage, whereas some players may tense up.
Tyrell Hatton (+3300)
I have been patiently waiting on a big Hatton finish at a major, so let’s hope the drama comes to an end this weekend. Hatton just finished with a T-18 at the Scottish Open last week, which was a nice bounceback after missing the cut at the US Open. Before that misnomer, he did finish second at the Palmetto Championship at Congaree. Hatton’s advanced analytics are what’s really appealing here, as he ranks highly in all needed areas: Strokes-Gained on Approach (11th), Strokes-Gained Off-the-Tee (20th), Birdie-or-Better % (31st), Scrambling (49th). Of course, the latter stat will need some improvements, but it does look like his game is starting to come around at the right time.
2021 British Open Golf Odds for Top American Player
| Golfers | Odds |
|---|---|
| Brooks Koepka | +800 |
| Dustin Johnson | +900 |
| Justin Thomas | +1600 |
| Jordan Spieth | +1600 |
| Xander Schauffele | +2000 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | +2000 |
| Patrick Reed | +3000 |
| Colin Morikawa | +3300 |
| Patrick Cantlay | +3300 |
| Scottie Scheffler | +3300 |
| Daniel Berger | +4000 |
| Webb Simpson | +4000 |
| Harris English | +4000 |
| Will Zalatoris | +4500 |
| Rickie Fowler | +4500 |
| Phil Mickelson | +5000 |
| Jason Kokrak | +5500 |
| Sam Burns | +5500 |
| Ryan Palmer | +5500 |
| Garrick Higgo | +6600 |
| Will Zalatoris | +6600 |
| Jason Kokrak | +9000 |
Full list of odds provided by William Hill
Odds Analysis for Top American Player
Brooks Koepka (+800) leads the way as the odds-on favorite to be the most successful American at the 2021 British Open; Dustin Johnson (+900) isn’t too far behind. Although, from there, it’s a huge dropoff from favorite to next-in-line: Justin Thomas (+1600), Jordan Spieth (+1600), Xander Schauffele (+2000), Bryson DeChambeau (+2000). We can’t forget these names either: Patrick Reed (+3000), Colin Morikawa (+3300), Patrick Cantlay (+3300) and Scottie Scheffler (+3300). Keep in mind, these odds are to be the best-finishing American player in this tournament — not the tournament overall.
Pick for Top American Player
Patrick Cantlay (+3300)
The advanced metrics line up for Cantlay, in terms of the stats we need: Scrambling (2nd), Strokes-Gained Off-the-Tee (14th), Strokes-Gained on Approach (25th), and Birdie-or-Better % (44th). Since missing the cut at the Wells Fargo Championship, he has turned in a T-23, first-place finish (Memorial Tournament), T-15, and T-15. Whatever struggles Cantlay was going through before that stretch, they are certainly over.
Daniel Berger (+3300)
Berger has some decent rankings where we need them: Strokes-Gained on Approach (14th), Birdie-or-Better % (26th), Strokes-Gained Off-the-Tee (37th), and Scrambling (57th). While those aren’t enough to make you run around in circles, we have to remember that Berger is due for a top finish soon. After all, he has finished in the Top-20 in four of the last six outings — this includes a T-7 at the US Open in mid-June and a T-3 at the AT&T Byron Nelson in mid-May.
Will Zalatoris (+6600)
Zalatoris has cooled off quite a bit since his hot start on tour, but I have no intentions of taking him lightly going forward. I have no fancy analytics or anything to bring forward, just pure gut feeling. Zalatoris did get a T-26 at the Scottish Open, giving him a little bit of familiarity with the play here across the pond. After some time away from the spotlight, the hope is that he has learned the ways of his mistakes. This was one of the top players on tour at the beginning of the year.
