One of the great things about MLB win total bets is they give you a team to root for or against for the entire 2022 MLB season. Playing 162 games means that no sport is a bigger daily grind than baseball, and making an MLB win total bet gives you reason to invest in every contest a team plays, even if you don’t have action on a specific game that day.
Who Is Atop the 2022 MLB Win Projections?
The 2022 MLB win totals range from an over/under projection of 98.5 for the Los Angeles Dodgers all the way down to 61.5 wins for the Baltimore Orioles. It’s no wonder the Dodgers also have the best Opening Day odds to win the 2022 World Series.
As of 2022 Opening Day, the following projected MLB win totals are available to bet on:
MLB Win Totals by Team for 2022 Season
- Los Angeles Dodgers: 98.5
- Toronto Blue Jays: 92.5
- Chicago White Sox: 92.5
- Houston Astros: 92.5
- Milwaukee Brewers: 91.5
- New York Yankees: 91.5
- Atlanta Braves: 91.5
- New York Mets: 89.5
- Tampa Bay Rays: 89.5
- San Diego Padres: 87.5
- Philadelphia Phillies: 86.5
- San Francisco Giants: 84.5
- Boston Red Sox: 84.5
- St. Louis Cardinals: 84.5
- Seattle Mariners: 84.5
- Los Angeles Angels: 84.5
- Minnesota Twins: 81.5
- Detroit Tigers: 77.5
- Miami Marlins: 76.5
- Cleveland Guardians: 76.5
- Chicago Cubs: 75.5
- Kansas City Royals: 75.5
- Texas Rangers: 74.5
- Cincinnati Reds: 72.5
- Oakland Athletics: 69.5
- Washington Nationals: 69.5
- Colorado Rockies: 68.5
- Arizona Diamondbacks: 66.5
- Pittsburgh Pirates: 64.5
- Baltimore Orioles: 61.5
MLB Over/Under Wins Predictions 2022
With these totals on the board, I think there’s a good amount of value on both overs and unders. Here are my three best bets and predictions for MLB win totals for the 2022 MLB season.
MLB Win Total Prediction: Detroit Tigers, Over 77.5 (-110), available at PointsBet
I believe the Tigers are a bit better this year than they were last year, and the team had 77 wins in 2021. The Tigers were actually a decent team over the final three-fourths of the 2021 season. Detroit went 63-59 after game 40 and also played above .500 in September, with a 14-12 record. If the Tigers keep building on last year, which they should, they can feasibly finish above .500 overall — a record that would net them 81 wins.
Detroit addressed a few needs this offseason by adding shortstop Javier Baez, catcher Tucker Barnhart and starter Eduardo Rodriguez, and they just picked up Austin Meadows from Tampa Bay in a trade to shore up the outfield. The team’s top prospect, Spencer Torkelson, made the Opening Day roster and is set to supplant future Hall of Famer Miguel Cabrera at first base. These additions, to go along with Akil Baddoo, Robbie Grossman and Jonathan Schoop, should upgrade the team as a whole in 2022.
It also looks like the AL Central won’t be very strong, outside of the White Sox, and the Tigers will play 57 games against Cleveland, Kansas City and Minnesota. That’s enough for me to think Detroit has a good chance to finish above .500 and top the projected 2022 MLB win total of 77.5.
While I think the Tigers are a year away from making the playoffs, all you need from this group is 78 wins this season. They can definitely manage that.
MLB Win Total Prediction: New York Mets, Under 89.5 (-110), available at PointsBet
The Mets’ 2022 win total looks to be an inflated number to me. Sure, they won the offseason and everyone expects new owner Steve Cohen to spend whatever it takes to win, but the Mets were still a 77-win team last season and I don’t think the additions are enough to push them to the 90-win threshold.
Perennial Cy Young candidate Jacob deGrom is already injured and won’t pitch until May or June, if things go according to plan — something that is never a guarantee with the Mets. And we saw how different a team the Mets are without their ace. One major addition, Max Scherzer, should help ease the pain a bit, but Scherzer is now 38 and pitching in New York can be a different beast. He will be expected to be the guy with deGrom on the shelf, moving everyone in the rotation up a spot. This should turn a would-be advantage for Mets into a bit of a crapshoot with Chris Bassitt, Carlos Carrasco and Taijuan Walker now slotted into the middle of the team’s rotation.
The Mets’ offense was entirely reworked this offseason, but it’s still to be seen if it’s enough to get them to 90 wins. While I do think the Mets make the playoffs, sharing a division with the defending World Series champion Braves and the up-and-coming Phillies seems to be enough to keep them under their over/under total. I think they make it close, but this team feels more like a high-80s one than 90.
MLB Win Total Prediction: Baltimore Orioles, Under 61.5 (-110), available at PointsBet
It’s not easy to bet an MLB win total where a team only has to avoid 100 losses, but there’s not much else you can do with Baltimore. The Orioles are just that far away from contention and stuck in arguably the best division in baseball. There’s a very real chance the O’s could go something along the lines of 15-63 against the Blue Jays, Yankees, Rays and Red Sox.
Besides the schedule, the Orioles’ biggest problem is that their most talented players won’t be starting the season in Baltimore, if they get there at all in 2022. Catcher Adley Rutschman missed Spring Training and will likely start the year in Norfolk, and future ace Grayson Rodriguez is likely to spend half the season in Norfolk too.
Beyond the lack of MLB talent, the Orioles haven’t won 62 games since 2017, and the rest of the AL East has only improved since last season. It’s difficult to see where the Orioles find 62 wins having to play nearly half of their schedule against the four AL East behemoths. With last place in the division almost a stone-cold lock, I’m banking on another 100-loss season for the Orioles to cash the under on their MLB win total in 2022.
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