MLB award voting might be a bit subjective, but subjective outcomes can prove to be great futures bets in the right situation. The Cy Young is one MLB award that fits into this category.
Because we often see the same favorites atop the Cy Young odds, this is an award that can be decided based on narrative. Sometimes it’s a great second half that carries over to the start of the next season, or a hot start can also allow a pitcher to separate himself from the pack in the first few months. This is why it’s important to get ahead of the curve and pick your Cy Young winners on or around Opening Day. You’ll typically get the best odds and can carry that future all the way to an award win.
Plus, unlike the MLB MVP Award or Rookie of the Year, there isn’t a lot of guesswork here. The potential MVP can see his team’s performance come into play, while Rookie of the Year requires avoiding that prized young player that happens to hit a snag and get sent down. The Cy Young is based solely on pitching success, and more often then not, the same hurlers are in the award conversation.
The National League Cy Young award picture is a bit muddied by the injury to New York Mets ace Jacob deGrom. While the two-time NL Cy Young winner is still listed, he went from the heavy favorite to +1300 as he won’t pitch until at least May. As for the American League, Gerrit Cole opens as the favorite (+425), and it will be a question of if he can finally get over the proverbial Cy Young hump with the Yankees.
Here are the odds for the National League Cy Young Award as well as a best bet and a longer shot to keep an eye on.
NL Cy Young Odds 2022
- Corbin Burnes +600
- Max Scherzer +650
- Zack Wheeler +650
- Walker Buehler +750
- Brandon Woodruff +800
- Aaron Nola +1050
- Max Fried +1100
- Sandy Alcantara +1300
- Jacob deGrom +1300
- Logan Webb +1500
- Charlie Morton +1600
NL Cy Young Best Bet: Walker Buehler +750
Being the best pitcher on the World Series favorite pays some dividends, as Walker Buehler is now the unquestioned ace of the Los Angeles Dodgers. I debated between picking Buehler or last year’s NL Cy Young Award winner, Corbin Burnes, but I think Burnes and fellow Brewers teammate Brandon Woodruff will get in each other’s way a bit.
Buehler doesn’t have a comparable teammate atop on the Cy Young odds, something that could help separate him at season’s end. His strikeout numbers have always been toward the top of the league and being on a team that will help get him lots of wins should put him in prime position to take home his first NL Cy Young Award in 2022.
NL Cy Young Longshot: Logan Webb +1500
Logan Webb came into his own last season with the Giants. He’s coming off a season where he struck out more than a batter per inning pitched (158 Ks in 148.1 innings pitched), and notched a 3.03 ERA to go along with 11 wins in 26 games started.
While the Giants might take a step back in the wins column this year, Webb should still be very effective. If he can pitch with a bit more length, to up those strikeout and win numbers, and keep his ERA and WHIP in check, Webb has a real chance to win the NL Cy Young with his +1500 odds.
Here are the odds for the American League Cy Young Award as well as a best bet and a longer shot to keep an eye on.
AL Cy Young Odds 2022
- Gerrit Cole +425
- Shane Bieber +750
- Robbie Ray +800
- Dylan Cease +850
- Lucas Giolito +850
- Lance McCullers Jr. +1200
- Frankie Montas +1300
- Justin Verlander +1300
- Kevin Gausman +1600
- Shane McClanahan +1600
AL Cy Young Best Bet: Shane Bieber +750
I have no interest in the favorite, Gerrit Cole, for two reasons. First, Cole was terrible in September and October last season, once he could no longer use Spider Tack. And, secondly, he pitches in the AL East, meaning a third of his games will come against Tampa Bay, Boston and Toronto. That’s enough for me to fade the +425 fave.
However, I do really like Shane Bieber’s situation in Cleveland. He pitches in the AL Central against the likes of the Royals, Tigers and Twins, something that could aid the right-hander in getting back to his 2020 AL Cy Young form. He wasn’t at all bad last season, but it was a far cry from the 1.63 ERA, 0.87 WHIP and 8-1 record he put up in 12 starts in 2020 on his way to taking home the award.
I’m looking for a big bounce back and think Bieber is being overlooked a bit with his +750 odds to win the 2022 AL Cy Young Award.
AL Cy Young Longshot: Frankie Montas +1300
Get your bets in now on Frankie Montas to win the 2022 AL Cy Young Award. With the Athletics’ fire sale, Montas could be moved any day and he could be traded to a contender. This will only help improve on his 13-9 record from last season, and if we pair that with over 200 strikeouts and, let’s say, his career ERA (3.86), that should add up to someone who can win this award.
Montas has the stuff to be one of the league’s most dominant pitchers, and if he’s traded to the right spot, I’ll be very happy I got him at +1300 to start the 2022 season.
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